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4193.T$2230.00+0.59%
Fair $2230.00+0.0%

4193.T

Fabrica Holdings Co., Ltd.

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$2230.00

+13.00 (+0.59%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2230.00Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 67/B
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $677.5M · quality 73.3/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 69/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

67/100

B

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 4193.TLocal privado en este navegador · Fabrica Holdings Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$11.5B

P/E

17.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

10.0x

↓

ROE

9.1%

↑

Gross Margin

46.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.07

↓
52-Week Range$2230
$1873$2977

TradingView lightweight chart

4193.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,230Periodo -30.4%
Fair value: $2,230

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+16.3%

FCF CAGR

+19.2%

FCF margin

7.4%

FCF / Net income

2.04x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $9.21B · net income $331.7M · FCF $677.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

46.1%-7.8% pts

Operating margin

12.0%-3.7% pts

Net margin

3.6%-6.2% pts

FCF margin

7.4%+0.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$9.21B$9.21B$8.16B$7.60B$5.86B
Net Income$331.7M$331.7M$673.5M$810.1M$574.2M
EBITDA$966.2M$966.2M$1.19B$1.29B$967.8M
EPS61.6061.60123.28148.49105.81
Gross Margin46.1%46.1%49.0%50.8%53.9%
Operating Margin12.0%12.0%13.1%16.9%15.8%
Net Margin3.6%3.6%8.3%10.7%9.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.070.070.120.090.17
Current Ratio1.901.90———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$677.5M$677.5M$246.6M$846.9M$400.3M
Returns
ROE9.1%9.1%18.7%25.5%24.0%
Valuation
P/E17.9317.9314.7121.3826.91
EV/EBITDA9.979.976.9111.8714.02
P/B3.283.282.755.456.45
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth12.8%12.8%7.4%29.7%—
EPS Growth-50.0%-50.0%-17.0%40.3%—
Dividend Yield1.8%1.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

47.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$197.88

Spread vs growth

-97.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

31.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$239.43

Spread vs growth

-81.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.1%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$385.60

Spread vs growth

-70.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +14.8%

Total return

+14.8%

Start / end P/E

16.0x → 36.2x

EPS bridge

123.28 → 61.60

Residual

-63.1%

EPS growth-50.0%
Multiple rerating+126.2%
Dividend+1.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-63.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.