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4412.T$1252.00-4.79%
Fair $1252.00+0.0%

4412.T

Science Arts, Inc.

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$1252.00

-63.00 (-4.79%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1252.00Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 43/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-46.4M · quality 55.3/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 28/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

43/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 4412.TLocal privado en este navegador · Science Arts, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$10.2B

P/E

54.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

75.4x

↑

ROE

8.0%

↑

Gross Margin

61.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.05

↓
52-Week Range$1252
$1010$2655

TradingView lightweight chart

4412.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,252Periodo -52.3%
Fair value: $1,252

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+35.8%

FCF CAGR

+41.6%

FCF margin

16.4%

FCF / Net income

2.42x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.65B · net income $112.2M · FCF $271.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

61.0%-4.9% pts

Operating margin

6.5%+4.8% pts

Net margin

6.8%+5.4% pts

FCF margin

16.4%+1.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.65B$1.65B$1.18B$771.9M$660.0M
Net Income$112.2M$112.2M$-31.8M$-81.3M$9.0M
EBITDA$110.3M$110.3M$-18.7M$-50.8M$15.3M
EPS14.3014.30-4.84-12.371.34
Gross Margin61.0%61.0%57.2%63.5%66.0%
Operating Margin6.5%6.5%-2.6%-8.7%1.7%
Net Margin6.8%6.8%-2.7%-10.5%1.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.050.050.19——
Current Ratio2.742.74———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$271.8M$271.8M$-46.4M$-87.9M$95.8M
Returns
ROE8.0%8.0%-6.7%-16.0%1.6%
Valuation
P/E54.6554.65——877.24
EV/EBITDA75.3675.36——472.82
P/B7.057.057.819.0813.85
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth39.7%39.7%53.5%17.0%—
EPS Growth395.5%395.5%60.9%-1023.1%—
Dividend Yield0.1%0.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

98.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$111.09

Spread vs growth

297.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

56.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$134.42

Spread vs growth

338.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

31.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$216.49

Spread vs growth

364.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +16.0%

Total return

+16.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-4.84 → 14.30

Residual

+15.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+15.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.