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v0.1
4424.T$209.00-2.34%
Fair $209.00+0.0%

4424.T

Amazia,inc.

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$209.00

-5.00 (-2.34%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $209.00Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 5/F
F-Score: 2/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-376.5M · quality 48.0/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 33/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

5/100

F

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -41.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 4424.TLocal privado en este navegador · Amazia,inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.4B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-41.0%

↓

Gross Margin

20.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$209
$208$705

TradingView lightweight chart

4424.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $209.00Periodo -77.8%
Fair value: $209.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-24.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-15.9%

FCF / Net income

1.22x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.84B · net income $-372.3M · FCF $-452.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

20.3%-15.6% pts

Operating margin

-13.1%-14.8% pts

Net margin

-13.1%-13.7% pts

FCF margin

-15.9%-16.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.84B$2.84B$3.59B$4.65B$6.55B
Net Income$-372.3M$-372.3M$-589.4M$-60.9M$41.2M
EBITDA$-371.0M$-371.0M$-388.6M$14.5M$120.4M
EPS——-89.62-9.276.04
Gross Margin20.3%20.3%26.9%31.2%35.8%
Operating Margin-13.1%-13.1%-11.2%0.2%1.8%
Net Margin-13.1%-13.1%-16.4%-1.3%0.6%
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio1.181.18———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-452.7M$-452.7M$-376.5M$-233.1M$49.4M
Returns
ROE-41.0%-41.0%-46.1%-3.2%2.0%
Valuation
P/E————125.66
EV/EBITDA———113.4328.67
P/B1.521.521.721.592.54
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-20.7%-20.7%-22.9%-29.0%—
EPS Growth——-866.8%-253.5%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -28.4%

Total return

-28.4%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-89.62 → n/d

Residual

-28.4%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-28.4%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.