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4430.T$1691.00+0.59%
Fair $1691.00+0.0%

4430.T

Tokai Soft Co., Ltd.

Technology / Software - InfrastructureTokyo

$1691.00

+10.00 (+0.59%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1691.00Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 56/C
F-Score: 3/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 26% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $702.4M · quality 60.3/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 50/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

56/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 4430.TLocal privado en este navegador · Tokai Soft Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$8.1B

P/E

8.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

6.1x

↓

ROE

13.4%

↑

Gross Margin

23.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.41

↑
52-Week Range$1691
$1502$2034

TradingView lightweight chart

4430.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,701Periodo +37.8%
Fair value: $1,691

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.5%

FCF CAGR

-13.2%

FCF margin

7.0%

FCF / Net income

0.91x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $10.68B · net income $813.4M · FCF $744.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

23.9%+0.8% pts

Operating margin

10.5%+1.3% pts

Net margin

7.6%+1.6% pts

FCF margin

7.0%-8.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$10.68B$10.68B$8.74B$7.72B$7.30B
Net Income$813.4M$813.4M$736.3M$623.8M$442.8M
EBITDA$1.38B$1.38B$1.13B$989.6M$796.3M
EPS170.15170.15154.43131.1390.26
Gross Margin23.9%23.9%24.8%25.2%23.1%
Operating Margin10.5%10.5%11.5%11.2%9.2%
Net Margin7.6%7.6%8.4%8.1%6.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.410.410.200.300.42
Current Ratio2.052.05———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$744.0M$744.0M$702.4M$-18.2M$1.14B
Returns
ROE13.4%13.4%13.9%13.3%10.8%
Valuation
P/E8.938.938.177.5911.30
EV/EBITDA6.086.084.744.716.06
P/B1.331.331.131.011.23
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth22.2%22.2%13.2%5.7%—
EPS Growth10.2%10.2%17.8%45.3%—
Dividend Yield3.5%3.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-4.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$150.05

Spread vs growth

14.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

1.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$181.56

Spread vs growth

8.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

5.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$292.40

Spread vs growth

4.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +6.6%

Total return

+6.6%

Start / end P/E

10.7x → 10.0x

EPS bridge

154.43 → 170.15

Residual

-0.7%

EPS growth+10.2%
Multiple rerating-6.5%
Dividend+3.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.