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4431.T$2485.00+1.35%
Fair $2485.00+0.0%

4431.T

Smaregi, Inc.

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$2485.00

+33.00 (+1.35%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2485.00Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 60/B
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.3B · quality 73.0/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 68/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

60/100

B

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 4431.TLocal privado en este navegador · Smaregi, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$47.9B

P/E

27.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

15.5x

↑

ROE

21.4%

↑

Gross Margin

61.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$2485
$1969$3630

TradingView lightweight chart

4431.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,485Periodo +26.6%
Fair value: $2,485

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+38.7%

FCF CAGR

+148.5%

FCF margin

16.2%

FCF / Net income

1.09x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $11.07B · net income $1.64B · FCF $1.79B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

61.1%-1.9% pts

Operating margin

21.5%+5.0% pts

Net margin

14.8%+4.1% pts

FCF margin

16.2%+13.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$11.07B$11.07B$8.39B$5.91B$4.15B
Net Income$1.64B$1.64B$1.21B$887.6M$445.0M
EBITDA$2.72B$2.72B$1.95B$1.05B$744.3M
EPS85.0385.0363.0046.0722.73
Gross Margin61.1%61.1%62.1%60.4%63.0%
Operating Margin21.5%21.5%20.7%15.1%16.5%
Net Margin14.8%14.8%14.5%15.0%10.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.01———
Current Ratio2.762.76———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.79B$1.79B$1.35B$806.7M$116.6M
Returns
ROE21.4%21.4%20.3%19.0%10.6%
Valuation
P/E27.6127.6136.3858.6143.82
EV/EBITDA15.4715.4719.8845.8621.48
P/B6.256.257.3911.114.65
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth32.0%32.0%41.8%42.6%—
EPS Growth35.0%35.0%36.7%102.7%—
Dividend Yield0.8%0.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

37.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$220.50

Spread vs growth

-2.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

25.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$266.81

Spread vs growth

9.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

17.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$429.70

Spread vs growth

17.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -20.4%

Total return

-20.4%

Start / end P/E

50.1x → 29.2x

EPS bridge

63.00 → 85.03

Residual

-14.6%

EPS growth+35.0%
Multiple rerating-41.6%
Dividend+0.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-14.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.