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4438.T$266.00+1.14%
Fair $266.00+0.0%

4438.T

Welby Inc.

Healthcare / Health Information ServicesTokyo

$266.00

+3.00 (+1.14%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $266.00Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 8/F
F-Score: 3/9
High DebtLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 14%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-430.7M · quality 38.3/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 26/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

8/100

F

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.22, above the 2.0 threshold ROE is -2.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 4438.TLocal privado en este navegador · Welby Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.2B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-198.2%

↓

Gross Margin

70.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

2.22

↑
52-Week Range$266
$260$558

TradingView lightweight chart

4438.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $266.00Periodo -94.0%
Fair value: $266.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-15.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-67.8%

FCF / Net income

0.80x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $635.7M · net income $-539.7M · FCF $-430.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

70.6%-1.3% pts

Operating margin

-71.2%-77.0% pts

Net margin

-84.9%-88.1% pts

FCF margin

-67.8%-53.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$635.7M$635.7M$528.0M$575.5M$1.05B
Net Income$-539.7M$-539.7M$-804.6M$-505.3M$33.9M
EBITDA$-500.3M$-500.3M$-792.8M$-500.0M$40.3M
EPS——-98.61-64.514.33
Gross Margin70.6%70.6%71.9%65.4%71.9%
Operating Margin-71.2%-71.2%-123.9%-76.0%5.8%
Net Margin-84.9%-84.9%-152.4%-87.8%3.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.222.220.250.000.01
Current Ratio2.052.05———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-430.7M$-430.7M$-776.2M$-258.7M$-146.9M
Returns
ROE-198.2%-198.2%-99.3%-46.3%2.7%
Valuation
P/E————82.22
EV/EBITDA————48.80
P/B8.088.083.394.692.19
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth20.4%20.4%-8.2%-45.2%—
EPS Growth——-52.9%-1589.8%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -23.3%

Total return

-23.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-98.61 → n/d

Residual

-23.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-23.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.