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4449.T$1139.00-1.56%
Fair $1139.00+0.0%

4449.T

giftee Inc.

Consumer Cyclical / Internet RetailTokyo

$1139.00

-18.00 (-1.56%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1139.00Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-3.8B · quality 37.3/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 22/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 4449.TLocal privado en este navegador · giftee Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$33.9B

P/E

37.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

10.6x

↑

ROE

10.2%

↑

Gross Margin

73.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.73

↑
52-Week Range$1139
$942$1954

TradingView lightweight chart

4449.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,139Periodo -44.7%
Fair value: $1,139

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+44.2%

FCF CAGR

+243.1%

FCF margin

75.3%

FCF / Net income

11.40x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $14.15B · net income $935.0M · FCF $10.66B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

73.7%-10.3% pts

Operating margin

18.4%+10.7% pts

Net margin

6.6%+6.4% pts

FCF margin

75.3%+69.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$14.15B$14.15B$9.55B$7.23B$4.72B
Net Income$935.0M$935.0M$-510.0M$129.0M$10.0M
EBITDA$3.07B$3.07B$567.0M$933.0M$459.0M
EPS31.5131.51-17.333.970.27
Gross Margin73.7%73.7%75.2%81.2%84.0%
Operating Margin18.4%18.4%18.3%17.5%7.7%
Net Margin6.6%6.6%-5.3%1.8%0.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.731.732.320.981.02
Current Ratio1.161.16———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$10.66B$10.66B$-3.79B$-3.91B$264.0M
Returns
ROE10.2%10.2%-6.2%1.6%0.1%
Valuation
P/E37.5837.58—416.126148.15
EV/EBITDA10.6410.6481.7060.81130.24
P/B3.703.704.626.467.60
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth48.1%48.1%32.2%53.0%—
EPS Growth281.8%281.8%-536.5%1370.4%—
Dividend Yield1.4%1.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

47.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$101.07

Spread vs growth

234.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

31.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$122.29

Spread vs growth

250.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.1%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$196.95

Spread vs growth

261.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -27.9%

Total return

-27.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-17.33 → 31.51

Residual

-29.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-29.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.