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4478.T$2355.00+5.94%
Fair $2355.00+0.0%

4478.T

freee K.K.

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$2355.00

+132.00 (+5.94%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2355.00Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 39/D
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-5.5B · quality 60.3/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 28/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

39/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 4478.TLocal privado en este navegador · freee K.K.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$139.6B

P/E

160.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

125.9x

↑

ROE

7.0%

↑

Gross Margin

82.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.49

↑
52-Week Range$2355
$1831$4330

TradingView lightweight chart

4478.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,355Periodo -12.8%
Fair value: $2,355

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+32.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.7%

FCF / Net income

-0.16x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $33.27B · net income $1.37B · FCF $-216.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

82.2%+2.0% pts

Operating margin

1.8%+23.0% pts

Net margin

4.1%+84.8% pts

FCF margin

-0.7%+21.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$33.27B$33.27B$25.43B$19.22B$14.38B
Net Income$1.37B$1.37B$-10.15B$-12.34B$-11.61B
EBITDA$901.2M$901.2M$-10.06B$-12.32B$-11.72B
EPS23.1023.10-174.43-215.64-208.22
Gross Margin82.2%82.2%82.5%83.6%80.2%
Operating Margin1.8%1.8%-33.0%-41.2%-21.2%
Net Margin4.1%4.1%-39.9%-64.2%-80.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.490.490.28—0.02
Current Ratio1.351.35———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-216.3M$-216.3M$-7.43B$-5.48B$-3.17B
Returns
ROE7.0%7.0%-59.9%-47.3%-31.9%
Valuation
P/E160.53160.53———
EV/EBITDA125.92125.92———
P/B7.107.108.496.695.27
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth30.8%30.8%32.3%33.7%—
EPS Growth113.2%113.2%19.1%-3.6%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

108.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$208.97

Spread vs growth

4.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

61.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$252.85

Spread vs growth

51.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

33.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$407.22

Spread vs growth

80.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -36.4%

Total return

-36.4%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-174.43 → 23.10

Residual

-36.4%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-36.4%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.