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4484.T$252.00-3.08%
Fair $252.00+0.0%

4484.T

Lancers, Inc.

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$252.00

-8.00 (-3.08%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $252.00Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 41/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-88.4M · quality 51.3/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 25/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

41/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 4484.TLocal privado en este navegador · Lancers, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.0B

P/E

48.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

11.6x

↓

ROE

13.0%

↑

Gross Margin

44.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.44

↑
52-Week Range$252
$204$326

TradingView lightweight chart

4484.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $252.00Periodo -67.7%
Fair value: $252.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-1.9%

FCF / Net income

-0.50x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.59B · net income $176.9M · FCF $-88.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

44.8%-4.4% pts

Operating margin

2.4%+11.4% pts

Net margin

3.9%+20.4% pts

FCF margin

-1.9%+9.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$4.59B$4.59B$4.57B$4.81B$4.07B
Net Income$176.9M$176.9M$111.1M$-238.6M$-672.4M
EBITDA$279.9M$279.9M$220.2M$-114.4M$-579.5M
EPS10.1810.186.95-15.14-42.86
Gross Margin44.8%44.8%48.0%47.2%49.2%
Operating Margin2.4%2.4%1.7%-5.2%-9.0%
Net Margin3.9%3.9%2.4%-5.0%-16.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.440.440.560.43—
Current Ratio1.861.86———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-88.4M$-88.4M$221.4M$-473.7M$-480.6M
Returns
ROE13.0%13.0%9.4%-24.9%-56.6%
Valuation
P/E48.4648.4640.00——
EV/EBITDA11.5911.5914.66——
P/B3.223.223.765.054.57
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.3%0.3%-4.9%18.0%—
EPS Growth46.5%46.5%145.9%64.7%—
Dividend Yield2.3%2.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

30.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$22.36

Spread vs growth

16.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

21.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$27.06

Spread vs growth

24.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

15.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$43.57

Spread vs growth

30.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +22.9%

Total return

+22.9%

Start / end P/E

30.1x → 24.8x

EPS bridge

6.95 → 10.18

Residual

-8.2%

EPS growth+46.5%
Multiple rerating-17.7%
Dividend+2.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-8.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.