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v0.1
4492.T$362.00+3.72%
Fair $362.00+0.0%

4492.T

Genetec Corporation

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$362.00

+13.00 (+3.72%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $362.00Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 44/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $232.5M · quality 33.7/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 7/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

44/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 4492.TLocal privado en este navegador · Genetec Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.2B

P/E

8.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.4x

↓

ROE

17.5%

↑

Gross Margin

40.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.94

↑
52-Week Range$362
$345$515

TradingView lightweight chart

4492.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $362.00Periodo +45.0%
Fair value: $362.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+20.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

2.9%

FCF / Net income

0.55x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $8.12B · net income $421.1M · FCF $232.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

40.3%-1.6% pts

Operating margin

8.5%+4.5% pts

Net margin

5.2%+4.0% pts

FCF margin

2.9%+6.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$8.12B$8.12B$7.15B$5.86B$4.68B
Net Income$421.1M$421.1M$414.8M$23.8M$56.6M
EBITDA$829.4M$829.4M$783.2M$245.1M$153.8M
EPS36.2336.2335.802.074.95
Gross Margin40.3%40.3%40.7%39.5%41.9%
Operating Margin8.5%8.5%8.8%1.8%4.1%
Net Margin5.2%5.2%5.8%0.4%1.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.940.940.290.520.03
Current Ratio1.491.49———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$232.5M$232.5M$495.2M$-359.4M$-176.4M
Returns
ROE17.5%17.5%18.7%1.3%3.0%
Valuation
P/E8.278.2724.75121.5858.99
EV/EBITDA5.405.4012.4311.3815.26
P/B1.751.754.641.551.80
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth13.7%13.7%21.9%25.2%—
EPS Growth1.2%1.2%1629.5%-58.2%—
Dividend Yield3.6%3.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-3.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$32.12

Spread vs growth

5.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

1.4%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$38.87

Spread vs growth

-0.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

5.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$62.60

Spread vs growth

-4.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -12.8%

Total return

-12.8%

Start / end P/E

12.1x → 10.0x

EPS bridge

35.80 → 36.23

Residual

-0.2%

EPS growth+1.2%
Multiple rerating-17.4%
Dividend+3.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.