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4496.T$682.00-0.44%
Fair $682.00+0.0%

4496.T

Commerce One Holdings Inc.

Technology / Software - InfrastructureTokyo

$682.00

-3.00 (-0.44%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $682.00Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 47/C
F-Score: 5/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $359.7M · quality 71.3/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 66/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

47/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 3.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 4496.TLocal privado en este navegador · Commerce One Holdings Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.8B

P/E

15.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

6.4x

↓

ROE

3.6%

↓

Gross Margin

56.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.02

↓
52-Week Range$682
$675$879

TradingView lightweight chart

4496.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $682.00Periodo -78.5%
Fair value: $682.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.9%

FCF CAGR

-3.3%

FCF margin

9.7%

FCF / Net income

3.93x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.69B · net income $91.6M · FCF $359.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

56.9%-1.1% pts

Operating margin

17.3%-5.7% pts

Net margin

2.5%-14.4% pts

FCF margin

9.7%-3.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.69B$3.69B$3.56B$3.20B$2.94B
Net Income$91.6M$91.6M$414.9M$441.4M$496.0M
EBITDA$483.1M$483.1M$846.7M$798.2M$752.2M
EPS12.7812.7857.5358.7865.93
Gross Margin56.9%56.9%56.6%56.4%58.0%
Operating Margin17.3%17.3%18.1%18.2%23.0%
Net Margin2.5%2.5%11.7%13.8%16.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.020.020.020.02—
Current Ratio2.712.71———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$359.7M$359.7M$661.6M$54.7M$398.4M
Returns
ROE3.6%3.6%14.6%16.9%21.7%
Valuation
P/E15.9315.9314.0112.9020.95
EV/EBITDA6.376.374.875.1711.63
P/B1.941.942.042.184.54
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.8%3.8%11.3%8.7%—
EPS Growth-77.8%-77.8%-2.1%-10.8%—
Dividend Yield3.2%3.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

67.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$60.52

Spread vs growth

-145.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

41.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$73.22

Spread vs growth

-119.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

24.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$117.93

Spread vs growth

-102.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -12.4%

Total return

-12.4%

Start / end P/E

14.0x → 53.4x

EPS bridge

57.53 → 12.78

Residual

-217.8%

EPS growth-77.8%
Multiple rerating+280.0%
Dividend+3.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-217.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.