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4650.T$266.00-0.37%
Fair $266.00+0.0%

4650.T

SD ENTERTAINMENT,Inc.

Communication Services / EntertainmentTokyo

$266.00

-1.00 (-0.37%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $266.00Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 23/D
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-60.3M · quality 34.3/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 14/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

23/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 4650.TLocal privado en este navegador · SD ENTERTAINMENT,Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.4B

P/E

11.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

9.0x

↑

ROE

5.9%

↑

Gross Margin

93.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.19

↑
52-Week Range$266
$262$335

TradingView lightweight chart

4650.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $266.00Periodo -24.0%
Fair value: $266.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-1.4%

FCF / Net income

-0.64x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.20B · net income $93.8M · FCF $-60.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

93.1%+1.7% pts

Operating margin

2.3%+4.2% pts

Net margin

2.2%+0.6% pts

FCF margin

-1.4%-1.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$4.20B$4.20B$3.74B$3.77B$3.99B
Net Income$93.8M$93.8M$117.9M$-197.7M$64.6M
EBITDA$419.8M$419.8M$431.4M$178.7M$536.8M
EPS10.4810.4813.17-22.087.22
Gross Margin93.1%93.1%93.6%92.8%91.5%
Operating Margin2.3%2.3%3.3%1.8%-1.9%
Net Margin2.2%2.2%3.2%-5.2%1.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.191.191.371.651.83
Current Ratio0.860.86———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-60.3M$-60.3M$-38.6M$-227.9M$8.8M
Returns
ROE5.9%5.9%7.9%-14.4%4.1%
Valuation
P/E11.0311.0320.80—42.38
EV/EBITDA9.029.028.4420.657.72
P/B1.501.501.641.761.75
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth12.5%12.5%-1.0%-5.3%—
EPS Growth-20.4%-20.4%159.6%-405.8%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

31.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$23.60

Spread vs growth

-51.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

22.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$28.56

Spread vs growth

-42.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

15.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$46.00

Spread vs growth

-36.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -1.5%

Total return

-1.5%

Start / end P/E

20.5x → 25.4x

EPS bridge

13.17 → 10.48

Residual

-4.9%

EPS growth-20.4%
Multiple rerating+23.8%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-4.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.