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4657.T$460.00-1.71%
Fair $460.00+0.0%

4657.T

Environmental Control Center Co.,Ltd.

Industrials / Waste ManagementTokyo

$460.00

-8.00 (-1.71%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $460.00Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 33/D
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $340.9M · quality 34.7/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 21/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

33/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 0.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 4657.TLocal privado en este navegador · Environmental Control Center Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.2B

P/E

51.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

8.3x

↓

ROE

0.3%

↓

Gross Margin

21.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.75

↑
52-Week Range$460
$396$559

TradingView lightweight chart

4657.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $460.00Periodo -61.7%
Fair value: $460.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+8.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

0.1%

FCF / Net income

0.85x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $6.10B · net income $7.9M · FCF $6.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

21.9%-0.0% pts

Operating margin

1.8%-0.6% pts

Net margin

0.1%-4.6% pts

FCF margin

0.1%+4.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$6.10B$6.10B$5.59B$5.34B$4.75B
Net Income$7.9M$7.9M$218.4M$-41.6M$223.0M
EBITDA$379.5M$379.5M$586.3M$334.0M$368.0M
EPS1.631.6346.26-8.8146.64
Gross Margin21.9%21.9%26.1%22.4%22.0%
Operating Margin1.8%1.8%5.9%1.0%2.4%
Net Margin0.1%0.1%3.9%-0.8%4.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.750.750.630.800.85
Current Ratio0.980.98———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$6.7M$6.7M$349.3M$340.9M$-223.7M
Returns
ROE0.3%0.3%9.3%-1.9%10.0%
Valuation
P/E51.1751.1711.46—9.48
EV/EBITDA8.308.305.7010.759.40
P/B0.950.951.081.160.95
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth9.0%9.0%4.7%12.5%—
EPS Growth-96.5%-96.5%625.1%-118.9%—
Dividend Yield1.7%1.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

192.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$40.82

Spread vs growth

-289.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

97.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$49.39

Spread vs growth

-194.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

47.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$79.54

Spread vs growth

-144.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +16.1%

Total return

+16.1%

Start / end P/E

8.7x → 282.2x

EPS bridge

46.26 → 1.63

Residual

-3036.6%

EPS growth-96.5%
Multiple rerating+3147.5%
Dividend+1.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-3036.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.