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v0.1
4712.T$801.00-0.12%
Fair $801.00+0.0%

4712.T

KeyHolder, Inc.

Communication Services / EntertainmentTokyo

$801.00

-1.00 (-0.12%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $801.00Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 59/C
F-Score: 6/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.2B · quality 75.3/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 71/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

59/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 3.8%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 4712.TLocal privado en este navegador · KeyHolder, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$15.1B

P/E

17.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

3.5x

↓

ROE

3.8%

↓

Gross Margin

17.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.19

↓
52-Week Range$801
$700$849

TradingView lightweight chart

4712.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $801.00Periodo -49.9%
Fair value: $801.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+17.3%

FCF CAGR

+37.4%

FCF margin

8.4%

FCF / Net income

3.50x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $35.63B · net income $857.4M · FCF $3.00B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

17.8%-1.5% pts

Operating margin

2.2%-0.9% pts

Net margin

2.4%-6.1% pts

FCF margin

8.4%+3.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$35.63B$35.63B$31.09B$27.51B$22.06B
Net Income$857.4M$857.4M$2.50B$2.11B$1.88B
EBITDA$4.11B$4.11B$4.38B$2.99B$3.25B
EPS——133.01113.1799.75
Gross Margin17.8%17.8%16.5%16.6%19.2%
Operating Margin2.2%2.2%6.0%2.3%3.1%
Net Margin2.4%2.4%8.0%7.7%8.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.190.190.200.100.11
Current Ratio2.962.96———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$3.00B$3.00B$2.19B$959.0M$1.16B
Returns
ROE3.8%3.8%11.4%10.6%10.2%
Valuation
P/E17.5717.575.337.297.22
EV/EBITDA3.483.483.104.123.39
P/B0.670.670.610.770.74
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth14.6%14.6%13.0%24.7%—
EPS Growth——17.5%13.5%—
Dividend Yield1.4%1.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +7.3%

Total return

+7.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

133.01 → n/d

Residual

+6.0%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+6.0%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.