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4719.T$3225.00-0.77%
Fair $3225.00+0.0%

4719.T

Alpha Systems Inc.

Technology / Software - ApplicationTokyo

$3225.00

-25.00 (-0.77%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3225.00Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 33/D
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.9B · quality 59.0/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 72/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

33/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 4719.TLocal privado en este navegador · Alpha Systems Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$45.3B

P/E

12.1x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.5x

↓

ROE

7.4%

↑

Gross Margin

23.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$3225
$3160$4240

TradingView lightweight chart

4719.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3,225Periodo -66.9%
Fair value: $3,225

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.3%

FCF CAGR

-20.4%

FCF margin

3.6%

FCF / Net income

0.43x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $38.48B · net income $3.21B · FCF $1.40B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

23.2%-1.0% pts

Operating margin

11.5%-0.4% pts

Net margin

8.3%+0.1% pts

FCF margin

3.6%-4.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$38.48B$38.48B$36.38B$35.55B$33.87B
Net Income$3.21B$3.21B$3.05B$2.92B$2.79B
EBITDA$4.66B$4.66B$4.58B$4.44B$4.28B
EPS228.76228.76216.91207.91—
Gross Margin23.2%23.2%23.3%23.8%24.1%
Operating Margin11.5%11.5%12.0%11.9%11.9%
Net Margin8.3%8.3%8.4%8.2%8.2%
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio4.454.45———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.40B$1.40B$4.59B$2.91B$2.77B
Returns
ROE7.4%7.4%7.3%7.3%7.3%
Valuation
P/E12.0812.0814.6818.90—
EV/EBITDA4.524.524.177.236.88
P/B1.041.041.071.391.37
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth5.8%5.8%2.3%4.9%—
EPS Growth5.5%5.5%4.3%——
Dividend Yield4.3%4.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

7.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$286.17

Spread vs growth

-2.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

8.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$346.26

Spread vs growth

-3.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$557.65

Spread vs growth

-3.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +2.8%

Total return

+2.8%

Start / end P/E

15.1x → 14.1x

EPS bridge

216.91 → 228.76

Residual

-0.4%

EPS growth+5.5%
Multiple rerating-6.6%
Dividend+4.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.