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4763.T$1254.00-1.42%
Fair $1254.00+0.0%

4763.T

CREEK & RIVER Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Consulting ServicesTokyo

$1254.00

-18.00 (-1.42%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1254.00Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 49/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.7B · quality 71.7/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 74/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

49/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 4763.TLocal privado en este navegador · CREEK & RIVER Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$26.6B

P/E

6.6x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.2x

↓

ROE

21.3%

↑

Gross Margin

36.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.60

↑
52-Week Range$1254
$1247$1629

TradingView lightweight chart

4763.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,254Periodo +291.9%
Fair value: $1,254

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2023–2026 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+11.6%

FCF CAGR

-6.7%

FCF margin

2.4%

FCF / Net income

0.36x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $61.39B · net income $4.08B · FCF $1.48B

2023-FY → 2026-FY

Gross margin

36.4%-2.2% pts

Operating margin

8.0%-1.0% pts

Net margin

6.6%+0.1% pts

FCF margin

2.4%-1.7% pts
MetricTTM
2026
2025
2024
2023
Income Statement
Revenue$61.39B$61.39B$50.28B$49.80B$44.12B
Net Income$4.08B$4.08B$2.25B$2.66B$2.90B
EBITDA$6.30B$6.30B$4.22B$4.62B$4.55B
EPS192.29192.29105.15119.53129.05
Gross Margin36.4%36.4%36.9%37.4%38.6%
Operating Margin8.0%8.0%7.2%8.2%9.0%
Net Margin6.6%6.6%4.5%5.3%6.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.600.600.260.160.14
Current Ratio1.341.34———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.48B$1.48B$1.73B$2.75B$1.82B
Returns
ROE21.3%21.3%14.2%17.1%20.6%
Valuation
P/E6.616.6116.1015.6317.49
EV/EBITDA3.243.246.547.069.56
P/B1.391.392.282.673.61
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth22.1%22.1%1.0%12.9%—
EPS Growth82.9%82.9%-12.0%-7.4%—
Dividend Yield4.0%4.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-16.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$111.27

Spread vs growth

99.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-6.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$134.64

Spread vs growth

89.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

1.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$216.84

Spread vs growth

81.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -11.5%

Total return

-11.5%

Start / end P/E

14.1x → 6.5x

EPS bridge

105.15 → 192.29

Residual

-44.6%

EPS growth+82.9%
Multiple rerating-53.8%
Dividend+4.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-44.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.