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4783.T$2321.00-0.09%
Fair $2321.00+0.0%

4783.T

NCD Co., Ltd.

Technology / Information Technology ServicesTokyo

$2321.00

-2.00 (-0.09%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2321.00Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 53/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 26% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.0B · quality 69.7/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 57/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

53/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 4783.TLocal privado en este navegador · NCD Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$18.6B

P/E

10.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.0x

↓

ROE

24.5%

↑

Gross Margin

21.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.20

↓
52-Week Range$2321
$2275$3550

TradingView lightweight chart

4783.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,321Periodo +415.8%
Fair value: $2,321

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.6%

FCF CAGR

+12.7%

FCF margin

6.5%

FCF / Net income

1.03x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $30.11B · net income $1.91B · FCF $1.97B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

21.8%+6.0% pts

Operating margin

9.3%+4.9% pts

Net margin

6.3%+4.1% pts

FCF margin

6.5%-0.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$30.11B$30.11B$25.48B$22.85B$20.55B
Net Income$1.91B$1.91B$1.39B$672.5M$458.3M
EBITDA$3.28B$3.28B$2.48B$1.35B$1.07B
EPS232.95232.95170.3883.3156.78
Gross Margin21.8%21.8%20.3%16.8%15.9%
Operating Margin9.3%9.3%8.3%5.2%4.4%
Net Margin6.3%6.3%5.4%2.9%2.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.200.200.320.460.58
Current Ratio2.242.24———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.97B$1.97B$2.35B$-68.7M$1.37B
Returns
ROE24.5%24.5%21.9%13.4%10.3%
Valuation
P/E10.2010.209.929.0012.36
EV/EBITDA3.963.963.993.314.02
P/B2.442.442.171.211.28
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth18.1%18.1%11.5%11.2%—
EPS Growth36.7%36.7%104.5%46.7%—
Dividend Yield5.2%5.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-4.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$205.95

Spread vs growth

40.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

1.4%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$249.20

Spread vs growth

35.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

5.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$401.34

Spread vs growth

31.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -16.2%

Total return

-16.2%

Start / end P/E

17.3x → 10.0x

EPS bridge

170.38 → 232.95

Residual

-15.6%

EPS growth+36.7%
Multiple rerating-42.5%
Dividend+5.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-15.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.