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4838.T$652.00-3.41%
Fair $652.00+0.0%

4838.T

Space Shower Skiyaki Holdings Inc.

Communication Services / BroadcastingTokyo

$652.00

-23.00 (-3.41%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $652.00Fund rank 38/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 49/C
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $558.1M · quality 82.0/100

Data gap 38/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 82/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

49/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. ROE is 3.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 4838.TLocal privado en este navegador · Space Shower Skiyaki Holdings Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$10.6B

P/E

8.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.6x

↓

ROE

3.6%

↓

Gross Margin

26.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$652
$502$960

TradingView lightweight chart

4838.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $652.00Periodo -73.1%
Fair value: $652.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+14.2%

FCF CAGR

+5.3%

FCF margin

2.6%

FCF / Net income

1.89x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $20.64B · net income $287.6M · FCF $544.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

26.5%+10.8% pts

Operating margin

4.3%+4.3% pts

Net margin

1.4%-2.7% pts

FCF margin

2.6%-0.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$20.64B$20.64B$16.14B$15.38B$13.86B
Net Income$287.6M$287.6M$280.2M$348.3M$573.6M
EBITDA$1.22B$1.22B$813.3M$867.9M$781.5M
EPS17.2617.2633.4141.7151.77
Gross Margin26.5%26.5%19.0%16.0%15.7%
Operating Margin4.3%4.3%3.8%1.0%-0.0%
Net Margin1.4%1.4%1.7%2.3%4.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.000.000.01
Current Ratio1.291.29———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$544.3M$544.3M$781.2M$558.1M$466.2M
Returns
ROE3.6%3.6%7.1%9.4%17.1%
Valuation
P/E8.918.9112.8410.268.11
EV/EBITDA3.643.640.591.053.43
P/B1.351.350.920.971.39
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth27.8%27.8%5.0%10.9%—
EPS Growth-48.3%-48.3%-19.9%-19.4%—
Dividend Yield8.1%8.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

49.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$57.85

Spread vs growth

-98.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

32.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$70.00

Spread vs growth

-80.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$112.74

Spread vs growth

-69.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +24.4%

Total return

+24.4%

Start / end P/E

16.8x → 37.8x

EPS bridge

33.41 → 17.26

Residual

-60.4%

EPS growth-48.3%
Multiple rerating+125.0%
Dividend+8.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-60.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.