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v0.1
4849.T$1271.00+1.92%
Fair $1271.00+0.0%

4849.T

en Inc.

Industrials / Staffing & Employment ServicesTokyo

$1271.00

+24.00 (+1.92%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1271.00Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 62/B
F-Score: 7/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 26% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.5B · quality 60.0/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 45/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

62/100

B

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 4849.TLocal privado en este navegador · en Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$48.0B

P/E

19.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

1.8x

↓

ROE

20.3%

↑

Gross Margin

79.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$1271
$1064$1840

TradingView lightweight chart

4849.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,271Periodo +272.0%
Fair value: $1,271

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.4%

FCF CAGR

-23.4%

FCF margin

6.5%

FCF / Net income

0.56x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $65.68B · net income $7.63B · FCF $4.26B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

79.8%+0.9% pts

Operating margin

9.0%-8.7% pts

Net margin

11.6%-0.5% pts

FCF margin

6.5%-10.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$65.68B$65.68B$67.66B$67.72B$54.54B
Net Income$7.63B$7.63B$4.20B$2.69B$6.63B
EBITDA$14.21B$14.21B$8.77B$6.09B$12.04B
EPS183.34183.34102.7660.24—
Gross Margin79.8%79.8%79.7%76.0%78.9%
Operating Margin9.0%9.0%7.6%6.3%17.7%
Net Margin11.6%11.6%6.2%4.0%12.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.020.010.01
Current Ratio1.871.87———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$4.26B$4.26B$2.47B$1.70B$9.48B
Returns
ROE20.3%20.3%13.1%7.7%16.3%
Valuation
P/E19.5319.5325.2736.85—
EV/EBITDA1.831.839.6912.768.74
P/B1.411.413.302.843.41
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-2.9%-2.9%-0.1%24.1%—
EPS Growth78.4%78.4%70.6%——
Dividend Yield5.4%5.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-15.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$112.78

Spread vs growth

93.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-5.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$136.46

Spread vs growth

84.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

1.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$219.78

Spread vs growth

76.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -16.2%

Total return

-16.2%

Start / end P/E

15.8x → 6.9x

EPS bridge

102.76 → 183.34

Residual

-43.9%

EPS growth+78.4%
Multiple rerating-56.0%
Dividend+5.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-43.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.