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5015.T$1001.00-0.49%
Fair $1001.00+0.0%

5015.T

BP Castrol K.K.

Energy / Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingTokyo

$1001.00

-5.00 (-0.49%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1001.00Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 48/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $451.2M · quality 52.0/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 61/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

48/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 5015.TLocal privado en este navegador · BP Castrol K.K.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$23.0B

P/E

21.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

13.5x

↑

ROE

10.4%

↑

Gross Margin

38.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$1001
$830$1030

TradingView lightweight chart

5015.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,015Periodo +233.3%
Fair value: $1,001

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+9.5%

FCF CAGR

+95.5%

FCF margin

5.3%

FCF / Net income

0.74x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $14.69B · net income $1.05B · FCF $780.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

38.3%-3.0% pts

Operating margin

10.6%+2.9% pts

Net margin

7.2%+2.0% pts

FCF margin

5.3%+4.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$14.69B$14.69B$13.65B$12.04B$11.19B
Net Income$1.05B$1.05B$932.5M$781.5M$572.5M
EBITDA$1.69B$1.69B$1.49B$1.25B$992.6M
EPS45.7645.7640.6134.0424.93
Gross Margin38.3%38.3%37.2%39.4%41.3%
Operating Margin10.6%10.6%9.9%9.2%7.8%
Net Margin7.2%7.2%6.8%6.5%5.1%
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio2.882.88———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$780.1M$780.1M$408.7M$451.2M$104.4M
Returns
ROE10.4%10.4%9.3%7.8%5.7%
Valuation
P/E21.8721.8721.4225.6234.18
EV/EBITDA13.4613.4613.3215.7319.36
P/B2.282.282.002.011.94
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.6%7.6%13.4%7.6%—
EPS Growth12.7%12.7%19.3%36.5%—
Dividend Yield4.9%4.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

24.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$88.82

Spread vs growth

-12.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

18.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$107.47

Spread vs growth

-5.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

14.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$173.09

Spread vs growth

-1.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +26.9%

Total return

+26.9%

Start / end P/E

20.5x → 22.2x

EPS bridge

40.61 → 45.76

Residual

+1.0%

EPS growth+12.7%
Multiple rerating+8.3%
Dividend+4.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+1.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.