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v0.1
5125.T$461.00-0.43%
Fair $461.00+0.0%

5125.T

Fines inc.

Communication Services / EntertainmentTokyo

$461.00

-2.00 (-0.43%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $461.00Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 32/D
F-Score: 2/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $449.9M · quality 54.0/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 63/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

32/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 5125.TLocal privado en este navegador · Fines inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.1B

P/E

7.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

1.1x

↓

ROE

11.9%

↑

Gross Margin

81.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$461
$458$1319

TradingView lightweight chart

5125.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $461.00Periodo -79.1%
Fair value: $461.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.9%

FCF CAGR

-73.3%

FCF margin

0.3%

FCF / Net income

0.03x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.76B · net income $238.9M · FCF $8.0M

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

81.7%+3.8% pts

Operating margin

11.9%-5.1% pts

Net margin

8.7%-3.0% pts

FCF margin

0.3%-19.0% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$2.76B$2.76B$2.91B$2.60B$2.20B
Net Income$238.9M$238.9M$510.0M$420.3M$256.9M
EBITDA$367.7M$367.7M$769.7M$632.0M$417.3M
EPS50.9250.92110.27101.01—
Gross Margin81.7%81.7%83.7%81.1%78.0%
Operating Margin11.9%11.9%25.4%22.8%17.0%
Net Margin8.7%8.7%17.5%16.2%11.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity———0.021.24
Current Ratio3.443.44———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$8.0M$8.0M$449.9M$559.2M$425.2M
Returns
ROE11.9%11.9%29.2%51.4%65.8%
Valuation
P/E7.857.859.05——
EV/EBITDA1.091.093.74——
P/B1.071.072.64——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-5.2%-5.2%12.2%18.0%—
EPS Growth-53.8%-53.8%9.2%——

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-7.0%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$40.91

Spread vs growth

-46.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-0.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$49.50

Spread vs growth

-53.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

4.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$79.71

Spread vs growth

-58.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -6.5%

Total return

-6.5%

Start / end P/E

4.5x → 9.1x

EPS bridge

110.27 → 50.92

Residual

-55.2%

EPS growth-53.8%
Multiple rerating+102.5%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-55.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.