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5137.T$213.00-0.94%
Fair $213.00+0.0%

5137.T

SmartDrive inc.

Technology / Software - InfrastructureTokyo

$213.00

-2.00 (-0.94%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $213.00Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 47/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-155.6M · quality 50.7/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 23/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

47/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 5137.TLocal privado en este navegador · SmartDrive inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$8.0B

P/E

15.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

16.1x

↑

ROE

39.6%

↑

Gross Margin

61.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.50

↑
52-Week Range$213
$208$570

TradingView lightweight chart

5137.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $211.00Periodo -14.0%
Fair value: $213.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+31.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

13.1%

FCF / Net income

0.83x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.88B · net income $453.6M · FCF $376.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

61.4%+0.5% pts

Operating margin

13.6%+39.0% pts

Net margin

15.8%+39.9% pts

FCF margin

13.1%+49.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.88B$2.88B$2.17B$1.71B$1.25B
Net Income$453.6M$453.6M$266.3M$-28.9M$-303.5M
EBITDA$497.0M$497.0M$236.3M$-6.7M$-297.2M
EPS11.6811.686.77-0.79-8.75
Gross Margin61.4%61.4%62.9%66.1%60.9%
Operating Margin13.6%13.6%8.1%-0.6%-25.4%
Net Margin15.8%15.8%12.3%-1.7%-24.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.500.500.681.0813.63
Current Ratio2.202.20———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$376.3M$376.3M$-155.6M$-220.9M$-461.6M
Returns
ROE39.6%39.6%34.3%-5.9%-656.5%
Valuation
P/E14.9814.9846.77——
EV/EBITDA16.0816.0851.49——
P/B7.227.2216.0424.25—
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth32.5%32.5%27.2%36.2%—
EPS Growth72.5%72.5%958.8%91.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

17.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$18.90

Spread vs growth

55.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

14.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$22.87

Spread vs growth

58.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

12.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$36.83

Spread vs growth

60.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -44.4%

Total return

-44.4%

Start / end P/E

56.0x → 18.1x

EPS bridge

6.77 → 11.68

Residual

-49.1%

EPS growth+72.5%
Multiple rerating-67.7%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-49.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.