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5161.T$2964.00+0.07%
Fair $2964.00+0.0%

5161.T

Nishikawa Rubber Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsTokyo

$2964.00

+2.00 (+0.07%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2964.00Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 55/C
F-Score: 6/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $5.4B · quality 51.3/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 28/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

55/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 4.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 5161.TLocal privado en este navegador · Nishikawa Rubber Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$107.5B

P/E

10.1x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.9x

↓

ROE

4.5%

↓

Gross Margin

17.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.21

↓
52-Week Range$2964
$2257$4545

TradingView lightweight chart

5161.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,964Periodo +378.1%
Fair value: $2,964

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+12.6%

FCF CAGR

+215.8%

FCF margin

4.5%

FCF / Net income

1.36x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $120.64B · net income $3.96B · FCF $5.39B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

17.8%+2.4% pts

Operating margin

6.1%+3.1% pts

Net margin

3.3%+0.8% pts

FCF margin

4.5%+4.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$120.64B$120.64B$117.90B$98.17B$84.50B
Net Income$3.96B$3.96B$5.04B$1.17B$2.10B
EBITDA$14.34B$14.34B$14.80B$7.88B$9.42B
EPS102.49102.49130.7330.4053.73
Gross Margin17.8%17.8%15.9%11.4%15.4%
Operating Margin6.1%6.1%5.6%-0.1%2.9%
Net Margin3.3%3.3%4.3%1.2%2.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.210.210.220.360.31
Current Ratio2.352.35———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$5.39B$5.39B$10.33B$-173.0M$171.0M
Returns
ROE4.5%4.5%6.0%1.6%3.1%
Valuation
P/E10.0910.097.7218.9612.25
EV/EBITDA5.935.930.960.941.06
P/B1.301.300.460.310.38
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.3%2.3%20.1%16.2%—
EPS Growth-21.6%-21.6%330.0%-43.4%—
Dividend Yield6.2%6.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

36.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$263.01

Spread vs growth

-58.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

25.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$318.24

Spread vs growth

-47.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

17.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$512.52

Spread vs growth

-39.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +35.6%

Total return

+35.6%

Start / end P/E

17.5x → 28.9x

EPS bridge

130.73 → 102.49

Residual

-14.0%

EPS growth-21.6%
Multiple rerating+65.0%
Dividend+6.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-14.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.