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v0.1
5208.T$2265.00+1.26%
Fair $2265.00+0.0%

5208.T

Arisawa Mfg. Co., Ltd.

Technology / Electronic ComponentsTokyo

$2265.00

+29.00 (+1.26%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2265.00Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 58/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-559.8M · quality 46.3/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

58/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 5208.TLocal privado en este navegador · Arisawa Mfg. Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$74.2B

P/E

15.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

9.1x

↓

ROE

8.2%

↑

Gross Margin

23.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.21

↓
52-Week Range$2265
$1340$2770

TradingView lightweight chart

5208.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,337Periodo -5.4%
Fair value: $2,265

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.0%

FCF CAGR

-16.1%

FCF margin

4.6%

FCF / Net income

0.58x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $49.82B · net income $3.97B · FCF $2.30B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

23.3%+3.2% pts

Operating margin

9.8%+2.1% pts

Net margin

8.0%-1.1% pts

FCF margin

4.6%-4.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$49.82B$49.82B$42.11B$42.72B$43.09B
Net Income$3.97B$3.97B$1.64B$2.86B$3.91B
EBITDA$7.58B$7.58B$4.48B$6.35B$7.26B
EPS119.39119.3949.4686.24117.32
Gross Margin23.3%23.3%17.5%18.3%20.1%
Operating Margin9.8%9.8%3.5%5.2%7.7%
Net Margin8.0%8.0%3.9%6.7%9.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.210.210.240.220.19
Current Ratio2.032.03———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.30B$2.30B$-559.8M$-904.3M$3.89B
Returns
ROE8.2%8.2%3.5%6.1%8.2%
Valuation
P/E15.0515.0522.7113.937.76
EV/EBITDA9.079.076.684.643.04
P/B1.551.550.810.840.63
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth18.3%18.3%-1.4%-0.9%—
EPS Growth141.4%141.4%-42.6%-26.5%—
Dividend Yield4.2%4.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

19.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$200.98

Spread vs growth

122.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

15.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$243.19

Spread vs growth

126.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

12.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$391.66

Spread vs growth

128.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +75.9%

Total return

+75.9%

Start / end P/E

27.5x → 19.6x

EPS bridge

49.46 → 119.39

Residual

-40.8%

EPS growth+141.4%
Multiple rerating-28.9%
Dividend+4.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-40.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.