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5858.T$1109.00-3.40%
Fair $1109.00+0.0%

5858.T

STG Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Metal FabricationTokyo

$1109.00

-39.00 (-3.40%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1109.00Fund rank 21/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 45/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 14%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $131.0M · quality 25.7/100

Data gap 21/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

45/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 5858.TLocal privado en este navegador · STG Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.4B

P/E

9.1x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.3x

↓

ROE

16.1%

↑

Gross Margin

23.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.22

↑
52-Week Range$1109
$1100$2491

TradingView lightweight chart

5858.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,109Periodo -31.8%
Fair value: $1,109

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+22.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

2.0%

FCF / Net income

0.34x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $6.43B · net income $389.2M · FCF $131.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

23.7%+1.3% pts

Operating margin

7.5%+5.1% pts

Net margin

6.1%+3.5% pts

FCF margin

2.0%+11.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$6.43B$6.43B$5.24B$4.68B$3.50B
Net Income$389.2M$389.2M$198.0M$191.5M$88.4M
EBITDA$981.6M$981.6M$699.3M$619.4M$378.5M
EPS188.57188.57115.88112.6751.85
Gross Margin23.7%23.7%22.3%21.9%22.4%
Operating Margin7.5%7.5%5.7%4.2%2.5%
Net Margin6.1%6.1%3.8%4.1%2.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.221.221.792.332.75
Current Ratio1.711.71———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$131.0M$131.0M$-142.8M$235.7M$-333.0M
Returns
ROE16.1%16.1%11.6%15.5%9.7%
Valuation
P/E9.079.079.1714.4231.34
EV/EBITDA4.264.265.547.6512.66
P/B0.940.941.062.243.04
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth22.6%22.6%11.9%33.8%—
EPS Growth62.7%62.7%2.9%117.3%—
Dividend Yield3.6%3.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-19.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$98.41

Spread vs growth

82.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-8.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$119.07

Spread vs growth

71.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

0.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$191.76

Spread vs growth

62.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -18.9%

Total return

-18.9%

Start / end P/E

12.3x → 5.9x

EPS bridge

115.88 → 188.57

Residual

-32.9%

EPS growth+62.7%
Multiple rerating-52.4%
Dividend+3.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-32.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.