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v0.1
5902.T$2198.00-0.99%
Fair $2198.00+0.0%

5902.T

Hokkan Holdings Limited

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersTokyo

$2198.00

-22.00 (-0.99%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2198.00Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 46/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $3.2B · quality 57.3/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 54/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

46/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 5902.TLocal privado en este navegador · Hokkan Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$27.1B

P/E

8.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.9x

↓

ROE

5.7%

↑

Gross Margin

23.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.75

↑
52-Week Range$2198
$1840$2533

TradingView lightweight chart

5902.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,198Periodo +85.5%
Fair value: $2,198

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+2.3%

FCF CAGR

-16.1%

FCF margin

2.4%

FCF / Net income

0.67x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $92.42B · net income $3.26B · FCF $2.20B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

23.0%+3.5% pts

Operating margin

4.9%+3.3% pts

Net margin

3.5%+5.0% pts

FCF margin

2.4%-1.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$92.42B$92.42B$90.93B$93.66B$86.33B
Net Income$3.26B$3.26B$2.72B$-2.01B$-1.23B
EBITDA$11.61B$11.61B$10.63B$8.34B$6.78B
EPS265.60265.60222.16-164.32-101.23
Gross Margin23.0%23.0%22.7%16.5%19.5%
Operating Margin4.9%4.9%4.8%-0.5%1.5%
Net Margin3.5%3.5%3.0%-2.1%-1.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.750.750.770.851.05
Current Ratio1.401.40———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.20B$2.20B$3.19B$5.50B$3.71B
Returns
ROE5.7%5.7%4.9%-4.0%-2.3%
Valuation
P/E8.268.268.52——
EV/EBITDA4.894.895.065.928.95
P/B0.470.470.410.330.29
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth1.6%1.6%-2.9%8.5%—
EPS Growth19.6%19.6%235.2%-62.3%—
Dividend Yield6.3%6.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-9.8%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$195.04

Spread vs growth

29.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-2.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$235.99

Spread vs growth

21.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

3.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$380.07

Spread vs growth

15.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +23.5%

Total return

+23.5%

Start / end P/E

8.4x → 8.3x

EPS bridge

222.16 → 265.60

Residual

-0.4%

EPS growth+19.6%
Multiple rerating-2.0%
Dividend+6.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.