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5969.T$1201.00+0.00%
Fair $1201.00+0.0%

5969.T

Lobtex Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Tools & AccessoriesTokyo

$1201.00

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1201.00Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 36/D
F-Score: 5/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-63.5M · quality 49.0/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 24/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

36/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 1.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 5969.TLocal privado en este navegador · Lobtex Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.2B

P/E

18.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

6.1x

↓

ROE

1.6%

↓

Gross Margin

29.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.62

↑
52-Week Range$1201
$1155$1600

TradingView lightweight chart

5969.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,201Periodo +105.3%
Fair value: $1,201

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-2.2%

FCF CAGR

-40.0%

FCF margin

2.9%

FCF / Net income

2.12x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $5.71B · net income $77.3M · FCF $164.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

29.9%-2.9% pts

Operating margin

3.6%-2.7% pts

Net margin

1.4%-2.3% pts

FCF margin

2.9%-9.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$5.71B$5.71B$5.93B$5.95B$6.10B
Net Income$77.3M$77.3M$279.9M$314.5M$224.8M
EBITDA$478.5M$478.5M$644.6M$673.9M$588.5M
EPS41.3841.38149.87168.42120.38
Gross Margin29.9%29.9%32.3%34.4%32.8%
Operating Margin3.6%3.6%6.0%8.1%6.3%
Net Margin1.4%1.4%4.7%5.3%3.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.620.620.680.690.68
Current Ratio2.442.44———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$164.2M$164.2M$-197.5M$-63.5M$759.0M
Returns
ROE1.6%1.6%5.8%7.0%5.3%
Valuation
P/E18.2518.258.837.788.40
EV/EBITDA6.136.134.633.903.27
P/B0.460.460.510.540.45
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-3.7%-3.7%-0.4%-2.4%—
EPS Growth-72.4%-72.4%-11.0%39.9%—
Dividend Yield5.0%5.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

37.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$106.57

Spread vs growth

-109.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

25.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$128.95

Spread vs growth

-97.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

17.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$207.67

Spread vs growth

-89.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +5.1%

Total return

+5.1%

Start / end P/E

8.0x → 29.0x

EPS bridge

149.87 → 41.38

Residual

-190.0%

EPS growth-72.4%
Multiple rerating+262.5%
Dividend+5.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-190.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.