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v0.1
600125.SS$5.76-1.20%
Fair $5.76+0.0%

600125.SS

China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co., Ltd

Industrials / RailroadsShanghai

$5.76

-0.07 (-1.20%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5.76Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 51/C
F-Score: 7/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $435.6M · quality 66.7/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 45/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

51/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 600125.SSLocal privado en este navegador · China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co., Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.5B

P/E

14.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.0x

↓

ROE

6.9%

↑

Gross Margin

8.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.07

↓
52-Week Range$6
$6$7

TradingView lightweight chart

600125.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.760Periodo +103.1%
Fair value: $5.760

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-1.4%

FCF CAGR

-13.4%

FCF margin

4.1%

FCF / Net income

0.89x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $11.49B · net income $525.1M · FCF $466.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

8.8%+2.2% pts

Operating margin

6.8%+1.9% pts

Net margin

4.6%+1.8% pts

FCF margin

4.1%-1.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$11.49B$11.49B$13.02B$14.69B$12.00B
Net Income$525.1M$525.1M$381.9M$470.8M$337.5M
EBITDA$1.22B$1.22B$1.04B$1.09B$900.8M
EPS0.400.400.290.360.26
Gross Margin8.8%8.8%7.2%6.0%6.7%
Operating Margin6.8%6.8%5.4%4.6%4.8%
Net Margin4.6%4.6%2.9%3.2%2.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.070.070.110.120.14
Current Ratio2.662.66———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$466.4M$466.4M$435.6M$-29.2M$719.3M
Returns
ROE6.9%6.9%5.3%6.7%5.1%
Valuation
P/E14.0514.0518.7017.0921.24
EV/EBITDA5.005.005.826.676.90
P/B0.990.990.981.151.08
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-11.7%-11.7%-11.4%22.4%—
EPS Growth37.2%37.2%-18.8%39.4%—
Dividend Yield2.3%2.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

8.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.51

Spread vs growth

28.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

9.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.62

Spread vs growth

28.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.00

Spread vs growth

27.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +1.1%

Total return

+1.1%

Start / end P/E

19.9x → 14.3x

EPS bridge

0.29 → 0.40

Residual

-10.4%

EPS growth+37.2%
Multiple rerating-28.0%
Dividend+2.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-10.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.