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600251.SS$9.99-2.35%
Fair $9.99+0.0%

600251.SS

Xinjiang Guannong Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsShanghai

$9.99

-0.24 (-2.35%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $9.99Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 5/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $26.3M · quality 49.3/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 25/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 600251.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Xinjiang Guannong Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.8B

P/E

16.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

16.7x

↑

ROE

9.2%

↑

Gross Margin

8.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.60

↑
52-Week Range$10
$7$13

TradingView lightweight chart

600251.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $9.990Periodo +443.1%
Fair value: $9.990

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.4%

FCF CAGR

-69.0%

FCF margin

1.0%

FCF / Net income

0.08x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.51B · net income $348.4M · FCF $26.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

8.8%-0.2% pts

Operating margin

0.3%-3.3% pts

Net margin

13.9%-5.8% pts

FCF margin

1.0%-35.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.51B$2.51B$3.51B$4.35B$2.41B
Net Income$348.4M$348.4M$204.6M$720.0M$474.9M
EBITDA$534.4M$534.4M$451.5M$1.07B$422.6M
EPS0.450.450.260.920.61
Gross Margin8.8%8.8%8.8%17.0%9.0%
Operating Margin0.3%0.3%3.4%13.3%3.6%
Net Margin13.9%13.9%5.8%16.6%19.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.600.600.650.710.82
Current Ratio1.591.59———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$26.3M$26.3M$441.4M$-4.2M$883.8M
Returns
ROE9.2%9.2%5.7%19.1%15.0%
Valuation
P/E16.9316.9327.089.4113.87
EV/EBITDA16.7216.7213.717.1019.16
P/B2.052.051.541.802.08
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-28.4%-28.4%-19.2%80.2%—
EPS Growth73.1%73.1%-71.7%50.8%—
Dividend Yield1.8%1.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

25.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.89

Spread vs growth

47.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

19.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.07

Spread vs growth

54.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

14.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.73

Spread vs growth

58.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +34.4%

Total return

+34.4%

Start / end P/E

29.0x → 22.2x

EPS bridge

0.26 → 0.45

Residual

-17.1%

EPS growth+73.1%
Multiple rerating-23.3%
Dividend+1.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-17.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.