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600444.SS$14.82-4.51%
Fair $14.82+0.0%

600444.SS

Sinomach General Machinery Science & Technology Co.,Ltd.

Industrials / Building Products & EquipmentShanghai

$14.82

-0.70 (-4.51%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $14.82Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $51.8M · quality 51.7/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 23/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 600444.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Sinomach General Machinery Science & Technology Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.2B

P/E

39.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

24.9x

↑

ROE

7.7%

↑

Gross Margin

13.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$15
$15$23

TradingView lightweight chart

600444.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $14.82Periodo +57.8%
Fair value: $14.82

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.5%

FCF CAGR

+183.6%

FCF margin

27.6%

FCF / Net income

4.26x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $898.8M · net income $58.3M · FCF $248.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

13.7%-2.0% pts

Operating margin

6.3%+0.8% pts

Net margin

6.5%+1.3% pts

FCF margin

27.6%+26.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$898.8M$898.8M$766.1M$755.0M$787.8M
Net Income$58.3M$58.3M$40.2M$40.0M$41.2M
EBITDA$61.3M$61.3M$49.0M$60.6M$63.5M
EPS0.400.400.270.270.28
Gross Margin13.7%13.7%14.1%16.9%15.6%
Operating Margin6.3%6.3%4.0%6.6%5.5%
Net Margin6.5%6.5%5.2%5.3%5.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.020.020.03
Current Ratio1.951.95———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$248.4M$248.4M$-11.2M$51.8M$10.9M
Returns
ROE7.7%7.7%5.7%5.9%6.2%
Valuation
P/E39.0039.0051.6254.3746.43
EV/EBITDA24.9324.9334.1428.9525.35
P/B2.882.882.933.192.90
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth17.3%17.3%1.5%-4.2%—
EPS Growth45.2%45.2%0.3%-2.3%—
Dividend Yield0.7%0.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

48.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.32

Spread vs growth

-3.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

31.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.59

Spread vs growth

13.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.56

Spread vs growth

24.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -4.2%

Total return

-4.2%

Start / end P/E

56.8x → 37.2x

EPS bridge

0.27 → 0.40

Residual

-15.6%

EPS growth+45.2%
Multiple rerating-34.5%
Dividend+0.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-15.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.