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600491.SS$1.38-1.43%
Fair $1.38+0.0%

600491.SS

Long Yuan Construction Group Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Engineering & ConstructionShanghai

$1.38

-0.02 (-1.43%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.38Fund rank 18/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 8/F
F-Score: 2/9
High DebtLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 10%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.6B · quality 13.7/100

Data gap 18/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 14/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

8/100

F

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 3.08, above the 2.0 threshold ROE is -36.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 600491.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Long Yuan Construction Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.1B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-36.6%

↓

Gross Margin

8.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

3.08

↑
52-Week Range$1
$1$4

TradingView lightweight chart

600491.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.380Periodo -37.9%
Fair value: $1.380

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-32.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

39.0%

FCF / Net income

-0.67x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.43B · net income $-2.59B · FCF $1.73B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

8.5%-7.0% pts

Operating margin

-2.0%-14.0% pts

Net margin

-58.3%-61.0% pts

FCF margin

39.0%+51.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$4.43B$4.43B$9.12B$9.00B$14.25B
Net Income$-2.59B$-2.59B$-663.4M$-1.31B$380.8M
EBITDA$-629.5M$-629.5M$1.03B$121.6M$2.12B
EPS-1.69-1.69-0.43-0.860.25
Gross Margin8.5%8.5%20.6%16.8%15.6%
Operating Margin-2.0%-2.0%15.2%10.5%12.0%
Net Margin-58.3%-58.3%-7.3%-14.6%2.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity3.083.082.252.151.99
Current Ratio0.810.81———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.73B$1.73B$1.37B$1.59B$-1.76B
Returns
ROE-36.6%-36.6%-6.6%-12.1%3.1%
Valuation
P/E————25.92
EV/EBITDA——25.89225.3415.15
P/B0.300.300.520.540.80
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-51.4%-51.4%1.3%-36.8%—
EPS Growth-293.0%-293.0%50.0%-444.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -64.9%

Total return

-64.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.43 → -1.69

Residual

-64.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-64.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.