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600519.SS$1309.60-1.24%
Fair $1309.60+0.0%

600519.SS

Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesShanghai

$1309.60

-16.40 (-1.24%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1309.60Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 39/D
F-Score: 3/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $64.0B · quality 77.3/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 79/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

39/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 600519.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.64T

P/E

20.1x

↑

EV/EBITDA

13.6x

↑

ROE

33.6%

↑

Gross Margin

91.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$1310
$1250$1600

TradingView lightweight chart

600519.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,310Periodo +18410.5%
Fair value: $1,310

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+10.5%

FCF CAGR

+23.0%

FCF margin

33.9%

FCF / Net income

0.71x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $172.05B · net income $82.32B · FCF $58.39B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

91.3%-0.7% pts

Operating margin

66.3%-1.5% pts

Net margin

47.8%-1.3% pts

FCF margin

33.9%+9.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$172.05B$172.05B$174.14B$150.56B$127.55B
Net Income$82.32B$82.32B$86.23B$74.73B$62.72B
EBITDA$117.02B$117.02B$121.72B$105.60B$89.39B
EPS65.6665.6668.6459.4949.93
Gross Margin91.3%91.3%92.1%92.1%92.1%
Operating Margin66.3%66.3%67.9%67.7%67.8%
Net Margin47.8%47.8%49.5%49.6%49.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.000.000.00
Current Ratio7.067.06———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$58.39B$58.39B$87.78B$63.97B$31.39B
Returns
ROE33.6%33.6%37.0%34.7%31.8%
Valuation
P/E20.0820.0821.4927.9636.13
EV/EBITDA13.5913.5914.7419.1424.70
P/B6.716.717.959.6911.47
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-1.2%-1.2%15.7%18.0%—
EPS Growth-4.3%-4.3%15.4%19.1%—
Dividend Yield3.9%3.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

21.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$116.21

Spread vs growth

-25.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

16.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$140.61

Spread vs growth

-20.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

13.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$226.45

Spread vs growth

-17.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -13.2%

Total return

-13.2%

Start / end P/E

23.0x → 19.9x

EPS bridge

68.64 → 65.66

Residual

+0.6%

EPS growth-4.3%
Multiple rerating-13.3%
Dividend+3.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.