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600561.SS$6.02-4.44%
Fair $6.02+0.0%

600561.SS

Jiangxi Changyun Co., Ltd.

Industrials / RailroadsShanghai

$6.02

-0.28 (-4.44%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $6.02Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 31/D
F-Score: 6/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $111.8M · quality 45.7/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 46/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

31/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 1.7%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 600561.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Jiangxi Changyun Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.7B

P/E

120.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

7.9x

↓

ROE

1.7%

↓

Gross Margin

-10.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.68

↑
52-Week Range$6
$6$8

TradingView lightweight chart

600561.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6.020Periodo -27.3%
Fair value: $6.020

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

7.7%

FCF / Net income

6.98x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.45B · net income $16.0M · FCF $111.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

-10.3%+6.7% pts

Operating margin

5.5%+14.4% pts

Net margin

1.1%+11.3% pts

FCF margin

7.7%+9.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.45B$1.45B$1.56B$1.54B$1.45B
Net Income$16.0M$16.0M$11.0M$-58.0M$-147.9M
EBITDA$358.6M$358.6M$372.1M$310.1M$291.6M
EPS0.060.060.04-0.20-0.52
Gross Margin-10.3%-10.3%-5.7%-5.6%-17.1%
Operating Margin5.5%5.5%5.3%3.2%-8.9%
Net Margin1.1%1.1%0.7%-3.8%-10.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.681.681.861.751.86
Current Ratio0.290.29———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$111.8M$111.8M$67.6M$132.0M$-22.1M
Returns
ROE1.7%1.7%1.2%-6.4%-15.5%
Valuation
P/E120.40120.40127.00——
EV/EBITDA7.857.857.3510.5410.21
P/B1.721.721.532.101.71
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-7.2%-7.2%1.4%6.3%—
EPS Growth50.0%50.0%120.0%61.5%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

107.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.53

Spread vs growth

-57.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

60.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.65

Spread vs growth

-10.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

33.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.04

Spread vs growth

17.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -4.3%

Total return

-4.3%

Start / end P/E

157.2x → 100.3x

EPS bridge

0.04 → 0.06

Residual

-18.1%

EPS growth+50.0%
Multiple rerating-36.2%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-18.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.