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600616.SS$4.64+2.88%
Fair $4.64+0.0%

600616.SS

Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Company Limited

Consumer Defensive / Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesShanghai

$4.64

+0.13 (+2.88%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.64Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 5/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $45.8M · quality 65.3/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 46/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 0.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 600616.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Company Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.1B

P/E

1546.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

41.8x

↑

ROE

0.1%

↓

Gross Margin

43.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.03

↓
52-Week Range$5
$4$7

TradingView lightweight chart

600616.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.640Periodo +204.2%
Fair value: $4.640

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-7.3%

FCF CAGR

-20.1%

FCF margin

8.7%

FCF / Net income

22.45x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $527.7M · net income $2.0M · FCF $45.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

43.4%+1.1% pts

Operating margin

-0.3%+0.6% pts

Net margin

0.4%-0.4% pts

FCF margin

8.7%-4.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$527.7M$527.7M$577.8M$572.8M$661.6M
Net Income$2.0M$2.0M$5.8M$104.5M$5.2M
EBITDA$53.3M$53.3M$54.6M$196.8M$58.6M
EPS0.000.000.010.160.01
Gross Margin43.4%43.4%42.0%40.9%42.3%
Operating Margin-0.3%-0.3%-1.9%-8.8%-1.0%
Net Margin0.4%0.4%1.0%18.3%0.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.030.030.030.030.04
Current Ratio6.246.24———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$45.8M$45.8M$59.1M$-12.1M$89.9M
Returns
ROE0.1%0.1%0.3%5.2%0.3%
Valuation
P/E1546.671546.67510.0038.31669.00
EV/EBITDA41.8241.8237.1816.6853.70
P/B1.631.631.502.011.81
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-8.7%-8.7%0.9%-13.4%—
EPS Growth-70.0%-70.0%-93.8%1500.0%—
Dividend Yield1.0%1.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

415.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.41

Spread vs growth

-485.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

178.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.50

Spread vs growth

-248.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

74.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.80

Spread vs growth

-144.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -18.3%

Total return

-18.3%

Start / end P/E

575.0x → 1546.7x

EPS bridge

0.01 → 0.00

Residual

-118.3%

EPS growth-70.0%
Multiple rerating+169.0%
Dividend+1.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-118.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.