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600617.SS$3.65-0.54%
Fair $3.65+0.0%

600617.SS

Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited

Energy / Oil & Gas MidstreamShanghai

$3.65

-0.02 (-0.54%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3.65Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 29/D
F-Score: 6/9
High DebtDeclining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.5B · quality 52.3/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 78/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

29/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 4unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 4.11, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 600617.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.0B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

12.3x

↑

ROE

-7.4%

↓

Gross Margin

7.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

4.11

↑
52-Week Range$4
$3$5

TradingView lightweight chart

600617.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3.650Periodo -1.5%
Fair value: $3.650

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.5%

FCF CAGR

-7.0%

FCF margin

9.6%

FCF / Net income

-5.20x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $15.36B · net income $-284.5M · FCF $1.48B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

7.4%-3.8% pts

Operating margin

4.6%-2.4% pts

Net margin

-1.9%-2.3% pts

FCF margin

9.6%-2.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$15.36B$15.36B$16.14B$17.20B$15.59B
Net Income$-284.5M$-284.5M$-339.7M$78.0M$65.6M
EBITDA$1.68B$1.68B$1.76B$2.18B$2.07B
EPS-0.16-0.16-0.180.040.04
Gross Margin7.4%7.4%7.6%9.5%11.2%
Operating Margin4.6%4.6%4.6%6.4%7.0%
Net Margin-1.9%-1.9%-2.1%0.5%0.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity4.114.114.235.406.11
Current Ratio0.590.59———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.48B$1.48B$1.11B$2.08B$1.84B
Returns
ROE-7.4%-7.4%-8.2%2.1%1.8%
Valuation
P/E———70.5482.80
EV/EBITDA12.2912.2911.0310.1511.44
P/B1.681.681.121.491.47
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-4.9%-4.9%-6.1%10.3%—
EPS Growth11.1%11.1%-550.0%12.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +38.8%

Total return

+38.8%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.18 → -0.16

Residual

+38.8%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+38.8%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.