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600638.SS$5.70-2.56%
Fair $5.70+0.0%

600638.SS

Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co., Ltd.

Real Estate / Real Estate - DevelopmentShanghai

$5.70

-0.15 (-2.56%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5.70Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 5/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 6.0/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 35/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific NAV/AFFO model required: REIT/real-estate targets are disabled until FFO/AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data exists. REIT NAV/AFFO valuation requires positive AFFO/share history or TTM AFFO/share; generic FCF remains disabled. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 1.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 600638.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.8B

P/E

30.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

-0.3x

↓

ROE

1.5%

↓

Gross Margin

32.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.69

↓
52-Week Range$6
$5$8

TradingView lightweight chart

600638.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.700Periodo -35.7%
Fair value: $5.700

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-18.9%

FCF CAGR

-17.9%

FCF margin

70.4%

FCF / Net income

26.26x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.52B · net income $67.6M · FCF $1.78B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

32.4%+15.2% pts

Operating margin

11.0%+9.0% pts

Net margin

2.7%+1.5% pts

FCF margin

70.4%+2.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.52B$2.52B$3.19B$3.41B$4.73B
Net Income$67.6M$67.6M$81.7M$62.1M$56.6M
EBITDA$500.2M$500.2M$560.7M$461.6M$252.8M
EPS0.100.100.120.090.08
Gross Margin32.4%32.4%27.4%26.8%17.2%
Operating Margin11.0%11.0%10.6%6.0%2.0%
Net Margin2.7%2.7%2.6%1.8%1.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.690.690.810.670.68
Current Ratio1.191.19———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.78B$1.78B$-39.2M$-498.2M$3.21B
Returns
ROE1.5%1.5%1.8%1.4%1.3%
Valuation
P/E30.0030.0039.4956.9467.54
EV/EBITDA-0.32-0.322.002.22-0.69
P/B0.850.850.720.800.87
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-21.1%-21.1%-6.2%-27.9%—
EPS Growth-17.2%-17.2%31.6%9.6%—
Dividend Yield0.6%0.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

71.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.51

Spread vs growth

-88.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

43.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.61

Spread vs growth

-60.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

25.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.99

Spread vs growth

-42.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +6.6%

Total return

+6.6%

Start / end P/E

44.4x → 56.8x

EPS bridge

0.12 → 0.10

Residual

-4.8%

EPS growth-17.2%
Multiple rerating+28.0%
Dividend+0.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-4.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.