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600648.SS$9.72-0.61%
Fair $9.72+0.0%

600648.SS

Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Specialty Business ServicesShanghai

$9.72

-0.06 (-0.61%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $9.72Fund rank 21/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 29/D
F-Score: 2/9
Declining RevenueMargin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-1.1B · quality 40.0/100

Data gap 21/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

29/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 600648.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$13.2B

P/E

13.7x

↓

EV/EBITDA

9.7x

↓

ROE

5.9%

↓

Gross Margin

28.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.28

↑
52-Week Range$10
$9$12

TradingView lightweight chart

600648.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $9.720Periodo -16.1%
Fair value: $9.720

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-13.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-18.7%

FCF / Net income

-1.19x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $5.97B · net income $935.3M · FCF $-1.11B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

28.9%-5.8% pts

Operating margin

13.0%-6.9% pts

Net margin

15.7%+2.2% pts

FCF margin

-18.7%+4.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$5.97B$5.97B$7.24B$7.69B$9.20B
Net Income$935.3M$935.3M$951.4M$928.5M$1.24B
EBITDA$2.67B$2.67B$2.66B$2.52B$3.03B
EPS0.730.730.840.821.09
Gross Margin28.9%28.9%32.9%36.6%34.7%
Operating Margin13.0%13.0%17.4%19.5%20.0%
Net Margin15.7%15.7%13.1%12.1%13.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.281.281.691.481.39
Current Ratio1.261.26———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-1.11B$-1.11B$-3.46B$-458.0M$-2.13B
Returns
ROE5.9%5.9%7.3%7.4%10.3%
Valuation
P/E13.6913.6913.1911.9111.08
EV/EBITDA9.699.6910.718.987.68
P/B0.780.780.960.881.15
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-17.5%-17.5%-5.9%-16.4%—
EPS Growth-13.1%-13.1%2.4%-24.8%—
Dividend Yield3.6%3.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

5.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.86

Spread vs growth

-18.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

7.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.04

Spread vs growth

-20.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

8.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.68

Spread vs growth

-21.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -9.6%

Total return

-9.6%

Start / end P/E

13.3x → 13.3x

EPS bridge

0.84 → 0.73

Residual

+0.0%

EPS growth-13.1%
Multiple rerating-0.1%
Dividend+3.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.