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600649.SS$3.98+1.53%
Fair $3.98+0.0%

600649.SS

Shanghai Chengtou Holding Co., Ltd.

Real Estate / Real Estate - DevelopmentShanghai

$3.98

+0.06 (+1.53%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3.98Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 35/D
F-Score: 7/9
High DebtLow Profitability

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 7.0/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 32/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

35/100

D

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific NAV/AFFO model required: REIT/real-estate targets are disabled until FFO/AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data exists. REIT NAV/AFFO valuation requires positive AFFO/share history or TTM AFFO/share; generic FCF remains disabled. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.01, above the 2.0 threshold ROE is 1.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 600649.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Shanghai Chengtou Holding Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$10.0B

P/E

36.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

23.4x

↑

ROE

1.4%

↓

Gross Margin

17.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

2.01

↑
52-Week Range$4
$4$6

TradingView lightweight chart

600649.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3.980Periodo -6.0%
Fair value: $3.980

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+19.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

14.3%

FCF / Net income

7.15x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $14.46B · net income $289.3M · FCF $2.07B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

17.4%+7.6% pts

Operating margin

9.2%+7.0% pts

Net margin

2.0%-7.2% pts

FCF margin

14.3%+115.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$14.46B$14.46B$9.43B$2.56B$8.47B
Net Income$289.3M$289.3M$242.7M$415.5M$782.6M
EBITDA$1.86B$1.86B$1.44B$1.43B$2.09B
EPS0.120.120.100.170.31
Gross Margin17.4%17.4%14.5%40.3%9.9%
Operating Margin9.2%9.2%8.0%34.6%2.1%
Net Margin2.0%2.0%2.6%16.2%9.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.012.012.001.991.90
Current Ratio2.382.38———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.07B$2.07B$2.47B$2.02B$-8.54B
Returns
ROE1.4%1.4%1.2%2.0%3.8%
Valuation
P/E36.1836.1840.0021.7612.71
EV/EBITDA23.4223.4229.7830.7022.03
P/B0.460.460.460.430.48
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth53.3%53.3%268.6%-69.8%—
EPS Growth20.0%20.0%-41.2%-45.2%—
Dividend Yield1.0%1.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

43.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.35

Spread vs growth

-23.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

28.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.43

Spread vs growth

-8.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

19.1%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.69

Spread vs growth

0.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -7.7%

Total return

-7.7%

Start / end P/E

43.6x → 33.2x

EPS bridge

0.10 → 0.12

Residual

-4.8%

EPS growth+20.0%
Multiple rerating-23.9%
Dividend+1.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-4.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.