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600838.SS$8.34-3.25%
Fair $8.34+0.0%

600838.SS

Shanghai Join Buy Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Department StoresShanghai

$8.34

-0.28 (-3.25%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.34Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 43/C
F-Score: 5/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-1.5M · quality 45.3/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 15/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

43/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 2.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 600838.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Shanghai Join Buy Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.3B

P/E

83.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

42.2x

↑

ROE

2.9%

↓

Gross Margin

22.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.02

↓
52-Week Range$8
$8$15

TradingView lightweight chart

600838.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.340Periodo +18.2%
Fair value: $8.340

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+11.7%

FCF CAGR

+27.4%

FCF margin

2.6%

FCF / Net income

0.05x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $95.6M · net income $45.3M · FCF $2.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

22.3%-0.0% pts

Operating margin

-27.1%+7.0% pts

Net margin

47.4%-28.9% pts

FCF margin

2.6%+0.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$95.6M$95.6M$92.7M$86.5M$68.5M
Net Income$45.3M$45.3M$42.0M$62.2M$52.3M
EBITDA$70.4M$70.4M$67.5M$87.7M$77.0M
EPS0.110.110.100.160.13
Gross Margin22.3%22.3%21.8%27.0%22.3%
Operating Margin-27.1%-27.1%-31.4%-31.3%-34.1%
Net Margin47.4%47.4%45.3%71.9%76.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.020.020.010.010.02
Current Ratio9.409.40———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$2.5M$2.5M$-2.4M$-1.5M$1.2M
Returns
ROE2.9%2.9%2.7%4.2%3.7%
Valuation
P/E83.4083.4079.4047.6254.08
EV/EBITDA42.2242.2243.1729.7032.82
P/B2.182.182.172.011.98
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.2%3.2%7.1%26.3%—
EPS Growth10.0%10.0%-37.5%23.1%—
Dividend Yield0.4%0.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

88.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.74

Spread vs growth

-78.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

52.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.90

Spread vs growth

-42.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

29.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.44

Spread vs growth

-19.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -5.4%

Total return

-5.4%

Start / end P/E

88.5x → 75.8x

EPS bridge

0.10 → 0.11

Residual

-1.4%

EPS growth+10.0%
Multiple rerating-14.3%
Dividend+0.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.