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601518.SS$3.13+2.96%
Fair $3.13+0.0%

601518.SS

Jilin Expressway Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Infrastructure OperationsShanghai

$3.13

+0.09 (+2.96%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3.13Fund rank 39/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 58/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $801.5M · quality 83.7/100

Data gap 39/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 86/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

58/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 601518.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Jilin Expressway Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.9B

P/E

12.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.8x

↓

ROE

8.6%

↑

Gross Margin

54.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$3
$3$3

TradingView lightweight chart

601518.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3.130Periodo +1.9%
Fair value: $3.130

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-2.1%

FCF CAGR

+8.7%

FCF margin

58.6%

FCF / Net income

1.63x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.37B · net income $490.8M · FCF $801.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

54.1%+8.3% pts

Operating margin

50.2%+10.1% pts

Net margin

35.9%+8.9% pts

FCF margin

58.6%+15.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.37B$1.37B$1.48B$1.45B$1.46B
Net Income$490.8M$490.8M$538.8M$546.5M$393.6M
EBITDA$964.5M$964.5M$993.2M$1.12B$903.8M
EPS0.260.260.290.290.29
Gross Margin54.1%54.1%52.7%56.6%45.8%
Operating Margin50.2%50.2%48.6%53.5%40.1%
Net Margin35.9%35.9%36.3%37.8%27.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.010.010.00
Current Ratio5.905.90———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$801.5M$801.5M$767.3M$993.4M$624.2M
Returns
ROE8.6%8.6%10.0%10.9%8.8%
Valuation
P/E12.0412.049.109.387.02
EV/EBITDA3.783.783.293.262.04
P/B1.031.030.911.020.62
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-7.8%-7.8%2.6%-0.8%—
EPS Growth-10.3%-10.3%0.0%0.0%—
Dividend Yield2.8%2.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

2.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.28

Spread vs growth

-12.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

5.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.34

Spread vs growth

-15.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

7.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.54

Spread vs growth

-18.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +15.3%

Total return

+15.3%

Start / end P/E

9.6x → 12.0x

EPS bridge

0.29 → 0.26

Residual

-2.6%

EPS growth-10.3%
Multiple rerating+25.6%
Dividend+2.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.