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601968.SS$4.60-1.50%
Fair $4.60+0.0%

601968.SS

Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersShanghai

$4.60

-0.07 (-1.50%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.60Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 35/D
F-Score: 7/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $109.2M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 12/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

35/100

D

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. ROE is 4.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 601968.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.9B

P/E

28.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

8.4x

↓

ROE

4.2%

↓

Gross Margin

7.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.15

↓
52-Week Range$5
$5$6

TradingView lightweight chart

601968.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.600Periodo +3.6%
Fair value: $4.600

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+0.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-2.2%

FCF / Net income

-1.03x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $8.78B · net income $187.7M · FCF $-192.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

7.6%-0.4% pts

Operating margin

4.0%-0.5% pts

Net margin

2.1%-1.0% pts

FCF margin

-2.2%+1.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$8.78B$8.78B$8.32B$7.76B$8.54B
Net Income$187.7M$187.7M$172.4M$218.6M$268.4M
EBITDA$684.9M$684.9M$700.1M$742.6M$707.4M
EPS0.150.150.150.190.24
Gross Margin7.6%7.6%8.1%9.0%8.0%
Operating Margin4.0%4.0%3.7%4.8%4.4%
Net Margin2.1%2.1%2.1%2.8%3.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.150.150.190.220.22
Current Ratio0.880.88———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-192.5M$-192.5M$511.3M$109.2M$-284.2M
Returns
ROE4.2%4.2%3.9%5.7%7.1%
Valuation
P/E28.7528.7531.4727.2627.67
EV/EBITDA8.378.377.268.5310.88
P/B1.271.271.211.551.97
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth5.5%5.5%7.2%-9.2%—
EPS Growth0.0%0.0%-21.1%-20.8%—
Dividend Yield1.7%1.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

39.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.41

Spread vs growth

-39.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

26.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.49

Spread vs growth

-26.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

18.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.80

Spread vs growth

-18.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -3.7%

Total return

-3.7%

Start / end P/E

32.4x → 30.7x

EPS bridge

0.15 → 0.15

Residual

+0.0%

EPS growth+0.0%
Multiple rerating-5.3%
Dividend+1.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.