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603018.SS$7.17-1.51%
Fair $7.17+0.0%

603018.SS

China Design Group Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Engineering & ConstructionShanghai

$7.17

-0.11 (-1.51%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $7.17Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 4/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $268.2M · quality 78.7/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 68/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 603018.SSLocal privado en este navegador · China Design Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.9B

P/E

17.1x

↑

EV/EBITDA

7.4x

↓

ROE

5.1%

↓

Gross Margin

33.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.12

↓
52-Week Range$7
$7$9

TradingView lightweight chart

603018.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $7.170Periodo -2.6%
Fair value: $7.170

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-11.0%

FCF CAGR

-14.4%

FCF margin

6.5%

FCF / Net income

0.98x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.11B · net income $274.3M · FCF $268.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

33.2%-3.7% pts

Operating margin

15.1%-2.9% pts

Net margin

6.7%-5.0% pts

FCF margin

6.5%-0.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$4.11B$4.11B$4.43B$5.35B$5.84B
Net Income$274.3M$274.3M$382.6M$697.8M$683.6M
EBITDA$443.4M$443.4M$569.6M$934.5M$910.1M
EPS0.410.410.551.010.99
Gross Margin33.2%33.2%37.2%39.0%36.9%
Operating Margin15.1%15.1%17.6%20.9%17.9%
Net Margin6.7%6.7%8.6%13.0%11.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.120.120.140.130.07
Current Ratio1.621.62———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$268.2M$268.2M$228.4M$452.6M$427.5M
Returns
ROE5.1%5.1%7.4%14.1%15.6%
Valuation
P/E17.0717.0713.737.237.75
EV/EBITDA7.437.437.183.814.25
P/B0.890.891.011.021.21
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-7.2%-7.2%-17.3%-8.3%—
EPS Growth-25.5%-25.5%-45.5%2.0%—
Dividend Yield1.4%1.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

15.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.64

Spread vs growth

-41.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

13.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.77

Spread vs growth

-38.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

11.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.24

Spread vs growth

-37.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -3.5%

Total return

-3.5%

Start / end P/E

13.7x → 17.5x

EPS bridge

0.55 → 0.41

Residual

-7.0%

EPS growth-25.5%
Multiple rerating+27.6%
Dividend+1.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-7.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.