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v0.1
603022.SS$10.05-3.46%
Fair $10.05+0.0%

603022.SS

Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersShanghai

$10.05

-0.36 (-3.46%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10.05Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 49/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $22.9M · quality 49.0/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 26/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

49/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 603022.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.0B

P/E

33.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

15.7x

↑

ROE

7.0%

↑

Gross Margin

19.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.09

↓
52-Week Range$10
$8$15

TradingView lightweight chart

603022.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10.04Periodo +21.8%
Fair value: $10.05

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-3.3%

FCF / Net income

-0.55x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $979.5M · net income $59.5M · FCF $-32.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

19.7%+1.9% pts

Operating margin

8.8%+2.9% pts

Net margin

6.1%+1.6% pts

FCF margin

-3.3%-5.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$979.5M$979.5M$876.0M$863.8M$793.0M
Net Income$59.5M$59.5M$49.8M$51.7M$35.1M
EBITDA$121.7M$121.7M$103.6M$101.8M$73.5M
EPS0.300.300.250.260.18
Gross Margin19.7%19.7%20.1%20.3%17.8%
Operating Margin8.8%8.8%8.9%8.3%5.9%
Net Margin6.1%6.1%5.7%6.0%4.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.090.090.100.100.10
Current Ratio2.162.16———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-32.7M$-32.7M$22.9M$77.2M$17.4M
Returns
ROE7.0%7.0%6.2%6.7%4.8%
Valuation
P/E33.4733.4727.6039.6550.61
EV/EBITDA15.7315.7312.4619.2423.35
P/B2.352.351.722.672.44
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth11.8%11.8%1.4%8.9%—
EPS Growth20.0%20.0%-3.8%44.4%—
Dividend Yield0.7%0.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

43.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.89

Spread vs growth

-23.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

29.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.08

Spread vs growth

-9.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

19.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.74

Spread vs growth

0.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +12.1%

Total return

+12.1%

Start / end P/E

36.0x → 33.5x

EPS bridge

0.25 → 0.30

Residual

-1.4%

EPS growth+20.0%
Multiple rerating-7.1%
Dividend+0.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.