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603038.SS$15.93-2.75%
Fair $15.93+0.0%

603038.SS

Dongguan Huali Industries Co.,Ltd

Consumer Cyclical / Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesShanghai

$15.93

-0.45 (-2.75%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $15.93Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 5/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-20.4M · quality 39.7/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 6/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 1.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 603038.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Dongguan Huali Industries Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.3B

P/E

51.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

35.3x

↑

ROE

1.6%

↓

Gross Margin

28.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.60

↑
52-Week Range$16
$13$23

TradingView lightweight chart

603038.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $15.93Periodo +30.5%
Fair value: $15.93

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+17.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-1.9%

FCF / Net income

-1.08x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.25B · net income $21.6M · FCF $-23.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

28.7%+10.3% pts

Operating margin

7.4%+4.8% pts

Net margin

1.7%+0.4% pts

FCF margin

-1.9%+7.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.25B$1.25B$1.05B$792.8M$772.8M
Net Income$21.6M$21.6M$23.1M$18.6M$10.7M
EBITDA$134.1M$134.1M$122.4M$92.4M$70.0M
EPS0.080.080.090.070.04
Gross Margin28.7%28.7%27.7%21.6%18.5%
Operating Margin7.4%7.4%8.5%5.5%2.6%
Net Margin1.7%1.7%2.2%2.3%1.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.600.600.460.310.34
Current Ratio1.471.47———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-23.4M$-23.4M$216.5M$-20.4M$-75.0M
Returns
ROE1.6%1.6%1.7%1.4%0.8%
Valuation
P/E51.3951.39169.22178.86197.60
EV/EBITDA35.3035.3034.1438.8433.09
P/B3.153.152.872.471.58
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth18.3%18.3%33.0%2.6%—
EPS Growth-11.1%-11.1%28.6%82.0%—
Dividend Yield0.3%0.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

160.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.41

Spread vs growth

-171.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

84.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.71

Spread vs growth

-95.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

42.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.75

Spread vs growth

-53.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +7.4%

Total return

+7.4%

Start / end P/E

165.3x → 199.1x

EPS bridge

0.09 → 0.08

Residual

-2.3%

EPS growth-11.1%
Multiple rerating+20.4%
Dividend+0.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.