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603128.SS$5.47-0.73%
Fair $5.47+0.0%

603128.SS

CTS International Logistics Corporation Limited

Industrials / Integrated Freight & LogisticsShanghai

$5.47

-0.04 (-0.73%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5.47Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 2/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $235.8M · quality 50.7/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 35/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 603128.SSLocal privado en este navegador · CTS International Logistics Corporation Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.2B

P/E

15.6x

↓

EV/EBITDA

9.1x

↓

ROE

7.8%

↑

Gross Margin

9.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.46

↑
52-Week Range$5
$5$7

TradingView lightweight chart

603128.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.470Periodo +76.7%
Fair value: $5.470

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-6.6%

FCF CAGR

-43.6%

FCF margin

1.4%

FCF / Net income

0.52x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $17.96B · net income $488.4M · FCF $255.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

9.0%-1.7% pts

Operating margin

3.0%-1.9% pts

Net margin

2.7%-1.3% pts

FCF margin

1.4%-5.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$17.96B$17.96B$17.52B$14.61B$22.07B
Net Income$488.4M$488.4M$538.8M$616.5M$888.3M
EBITDA$852.8M$852.8M$870.6M$1.00B$1.38B
EPS0.370.370.410.470.68
Gross Margin9.0%9.0%10.6%13.4%10.6%
Operating Margin3.0%3.0%3.4%4.7%4.8%
Net Margin2.7%2.7%3.1%4.2%4.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.460.460.240.110.24
Current Ratio1.651.65———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$255.0M$255.0M$98.8M$235.8M$1.42B
Returns
ROE7.8%7.8%9.0%10.5%15.3%
Valuation
P/E15.6315.6314.7615.8715.35
EV/EBITDA9.059.058.368.459.00
P/B1.161.161.331.672.35
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.5%2.5%20.0%-33.8%—
EPS Growth-9.8%-9.8%-12.8%-30.9%—
Dividend Yield5.3%5.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

9.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.49

Spread vs growth

-19.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

9.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.59

Spread vs growth

-19.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.95

Spread vs growth

-19.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -12.4%

Total return

-12.4%

Start / end P/E

16.2x → 14.8x

EPS bridge

0.41 → 0.37

Residual

+0.9%

EPS growth-9.8%
Multiple rerating-8.7%
Dividend+5.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.