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603161.SS$14.45+3.58%
Fair $14.45+0.0%

603161.SS

Kehua Holdings Co.,Ltd

Industrials / Specialty Industrial MachineryShanghai

$14.45

+0.50 (+3.58%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $14.45Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 6/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $522.6M · quality 71.3/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 70/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 603161.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Kehua Holdings Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.8B

P/E

32.1x

↑

EV/EBITDA

9.5x

↓

ROE

6.5%

↑

Gross Margin

14.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.33

↑
52-Week Range$14
$11$17

TradingView lightweight chart

603161.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $14.45Periodo -44.5%
Fair value: $14.45

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.3%

FCF CAGR

+73.4%

FCF margin

21.5%

FCF / Net income

4.93x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.24B · net income $97.5M · FCF $481.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

14.2%+0.8% pts

Operating margin

6.1%+1.0% pts

Net margin

4.4%+3.5% pts

FCF margin

21.5%+17.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.24B$2.24B$2.37B$2.61B$2.26B
Net Income$97.5M$97.5M$105.1M$123.2M$19.5M
EBITDA$326.0M$326.0M$366.7M$413.2M$287.0M
EPS——0.550.920.11
Gross Margin14.2%14.2%16.0%17.1%13.5%
Operating Margin6.1%6.1%7.5%9.1%5.1%
Net Margin4.4%4.4%4.4%4.7%0.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.330.330.530.841.13
Current Ratio1.291.29———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$481.0M$481.0M$560.4M$522.6M$92.3M
Returns
ROE6.5%6.5%7.2%8.9%1.5%
Valuation
P/E32.1132.1118.7112.0788.20
EV/EBITDA9.459.456.995.7910.33
P/B1.861.861.351.071.36
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-5.6%-5.6%-9.3%15.6%—
EPS Growth——-40.2%770.9%—
Dividend Yield1.2%1.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +17.7%

Total return

+17.7%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.55 → n/d

Residual

+16.5%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+16.5%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.