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603230.SS$9.94-1.97%
Fair $9.94+0.0%

603230.SS

Inner Mongolia Xinhua Distribution Group Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Specialty RetailShanghai

$9.94

-0.20 (-1.97%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $9.94Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $198.5M · quality 53.0/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 30/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 603230.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Inner Mongolia Xinhua Distribution Group Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.5B

P/E

43.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

10.9x

↑

ROE

6.3%

↑

Gross Margin

39.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$10
$10$16

TradingView lightweight chart

603230.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $9.940Periodo -38.1%
Fair value: $9.940

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-3.0%

FCF CAGR

-0.5%

FCF margin

13.1%

FCF / Net income

1.14x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.51B · net income $174.8M · FCF $198.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

39.2%-0.2% pts

Operating margin

10.9%-2.9% pts

Net margin

11.5%-4.6% pts

FCF margin

13.1%+1.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.51B$1.51B$1.81B$1.84B$1.66B
Net Income$174.8M$174.8M$338.1M$314.8M$267.8M
EBITDA$253.6M$253.6M$406.7M$373.4M$323.7M
EPS0.490.490.960.890.76
Gross Margin39.2%39.2%40.3%40.2%39.4%
Operating Margin10.9%10.9%15.7%15.1%13.9%
Net Margin11.5%11.5%18.7%17.1%16.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.000.000.00
Current Ratio2.172.17———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$198.5M$198.5M$-158.5M$455.8M$201.4M
Returns
ROE6.3%6.3%12.3%12.2%11.6%
Valuation
P/E43.2243.2212.8916.9114.75
EV/EBITDA10.9010.908.4410.067.77
P/B1.281.281.582.071.72
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-16.4%-16.4%-1.6%10.9%—
EPS Growth-49.0%-49.0%7.9%17.1%—
Dividend Yield4.7%4.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

21.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.88

Spread vs growth

-70.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

16.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.07

Spread vs growth

-65.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

13.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.72

Spread vs growth

-62.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -19.5%

Total return

-19.5%

Start / end P/E

13.7x → 20.3x

EPS bridge

0.96 → 0.49

Residual

-23.7%

EPS growth-49.0%
Multiple rerating+48.4%
Dividend+4.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-23.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.