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603409.SS$41.20+1.23%
Fair $41.20+0.0%

603409.SS

Hefei Conver Holding Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsShanghai

$41.20

+0.50 (+1.23%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $41.20Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 52/C
F-Score: 4/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-43.4M · quality 45.7/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 15/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

52/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 603409.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Hefei Conver Holding Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.2B

P/E

32.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

19.7x

↑

ROE

9.7%

↑

Gross Margin

25.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.02

↓
52-Week Range$41
$33$46

TradingView lightweight chart

603409.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $41.20Periodo -18.9%
Fair value: $41.20

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+25.3%

FCF CAGR

-8.6%

FCF margin

4.7%

FCF / Net income

0.39x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.24B · net income $147.4M · FCF $57.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

25.4%-13.5% pts

Operating margin

13.8%-15.0% pts

Net margin

11.9%-13.9% pts

FCF margin

4.7%-7.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.24B$1.24B$1.07B$764.6M$628.3M
Net Income$147.4M$147.4M$163.1M$152.4M$162.1M
EBITDA$240.0M$240.0M$238.7M$205.9M$205.3M
EPS1.221.221.731.611.72
Gross Margin25.4%25.4%28.9%33.6%38.9%
Operating Margin13.8%13.8%18.5%22.9%28.8%
Net Margin11.9%11.9%15.3%19.9%25.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.020.020.280.140.09
Current Ratio2.592.59———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$57.8M$57.8M$-92.2M$-43.4M$75.8M
Returns
ROE9.7%9.7%21.5%25.6%36.8%
Valuation
P/E32.4432.44———
EV/EBITDA19.7219.72———
P/B3.273.27———
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth15.5%15.5%39.8%21.7%—
EPS Growth-29.5%-29.5%7.5%-6.4%—
Dividend Yield1.1%1.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

44.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.66

Spread vs growth

-73.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

29.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$4.42

Spread vs growth

-58.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

19.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$7.12

Spread vs growth

-48.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +17.0%

Total return

+17.0%

Start / end P/E

20.5x → 33.8x

EPS bridge

1.73 → 1.22

Residual

-19.0%

EPS growth-29.5%
Multiple rerating+64.3%
Dividend+1.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-19.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.