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603569.SS$6.22+3.32%
Fair $6.22+0.0%

603569.SS

Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co.,Ltd

Industrials / Integrated Freight & LogisticsShanghai

$6.22

+0.20 (+3.32%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $6.22Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 22/D
F-Score: 2/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $266.6M · quality 51.7/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 34/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

22/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -3.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 603569.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.8B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

13.3x

↑

ROE

-3.3%

↓

Gross Margin

10.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.54

↑
52-Week Range$6
$6$11

TradingView lightweight chart

603569.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6.220Periodo -67.6%
Fair value: $6.220

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-2.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

7.8%

FCF / Net income

-3.29x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.69B · net income $-87.4M · FCF $287.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

10.0%+0.8% pts

Operating margin

-0.1%-1.8% pts

Net margin

-2.4%-2.8% pts

FCF margin

7.8%+9.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.69B$3.69B$4.02B$3.77B$3.96B
Net Income$-87.4M$-87.4M$79.6M$70.3M$18.0M
EBITDA$333.7M$333.7M$489.8M$376.1M$303.1M
EPS-0.14-0.140.130.120.03
Gross Margin10.0%10.0%12.0%10.7%9.1%
Operating Margin-0.1%-0.1%3.5%2.0%1.8%
Net Margin-2.4%-2.4%2.0%1.9%0.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.540.540.420.420.75
Current Ratio1.171.17———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$287.3M$287.3M$266.6M$235.9M$-59.8M
Returns
ROE-3.3%-3.3%2.7%2.4%0.8%
Valuation
P/E——53.6295.17293.67
EV/EBITDA13.3313.337.5213.5612.61
P/B1.451.451.041.521.10
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-8.2%-8.2%6.7%-4.8%—
EPS Growth-207.7%-207.7%8.3%300.0%—
Dividend Yield5.8%5.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -18.5%

Total return

-18.5%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.13 → -0.14

Residual

-24.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+5.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-24.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.