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603689.SS$8.19-1.68%
Fair $8.19+0.0%

603689.SS

Anhui Province Natural Gas DevelopmentCo.,Ltd.

Energy / Oil & Gas MidstreamShanghai

$8.19

-0.14 (-1.68%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.19Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 29/D
F-Score: 5/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-79.3M · quality 61.0/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 34/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

29/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 603689.SSLocal privado en este navegador · Anhui Province Natural Gas DevelopmentCo.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.3B

P/E

14.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

9.1x

↑

ROE

8.7%

↑

Gross Margin

12.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.54

↑
52-Week Range$8
$8$10

TradingView lightweight chart

603689.SS price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.190Periodo -8.0%
Fair value: $8.190

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-4.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-1.3%

FCF / Net income

-0.20x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $5.11B · net income $324.5M · FCF $-64.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

12.7%+4.2% pts

Operating margin

8.7%+2.7% pts

Net margin

6.4%+2.0% pts

FCF margin

-1.3%+1.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$5.11B$5.11B$5.80B$6.10B$5.93B
Net Income$324.5M$324.5M$332.6M$344.0M$255.1M
EBITDA$701.3M$701.3M$708.5M$655.5M$534.9M
EPS0.550.550.560.590.45
Gross Margin12.7%12.7%11.8%11.2%8.5%
Operating Margin8.7%8.7%7.9%7.3%6.0%
Net Margin6.4%6.4%5.7%5.6%4.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.540.540.800.860.83
Current Ratio0.540.54———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-64.7M$-64.7M$-128.2M$-79.3M$-189.7M
Returns
ROE8.7%8.7%10.1%11.3%9.0%
Valuation
P/E14.3714.3715.5015.2417.82
EV/EBITDA9.089.0810.2510.9011.47
P/B1.301.301.561.721.61
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-11.9%-11.9%-5.0%3.0%—
EPS Growth-1.8%-1.8%-5.1%31.1%—
Dividend Yield4.2%4.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

9.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.73

Spread vs growth

-11.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

9.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.88

Spread vs growth

-11.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.9%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.42

Spread vs growth

-11.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -2.7%

Total return

-2.7%

Start / end P/E

15.7x → 14.9x

EPS bridge

0.56 → 0.55

Residual

+0.1%

EPS growth-1.8%
Multiple rerating-5.2%
Dividend+4.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.